Seven days in Opposition

Press, 28 August 1984, Page 4

Seven days in Opposition

By

OLIVER RIDDELL

in Wellington The session of Parliament which ended last Friday, to permit a three-week gap for the Economic Summit Conference, ran for only seven days. Members of the National Opposition resisted the temptation to describe it as a "seven-day wonder,” but that was about the only temptation they did resist. Those seven < days were noted for their acrimony, and for the way National opposed just about everything they could oppose. Of the five candidates for leadership after the first National caucus in 1985 when the question of leadership will be decided, two made progress, one stood still, and two slipped back. Seven days was not a long time for them in which to impress, but two did. Sir Robert Muldoon looked and acted more like a caretaker Leader would have seemed possible

two months ago. He seemed, if only temporarily, to have lost two of the qualities he used to have in abundance — energy, and the ability to go to the heart of an issue. The other potential candidate to have slipped back was the former Minister of Energy, Mr Birch. His performance in the House confirmed the negative impact he had made at the National Party’s annual conference two weeks after the General Election. Why, or even how, he has slipped back is not clear. He has n6t slipped back because of his close association with Sir Robert. It is more that he seems to have Sicked the wrong issues, or le wrong side of issues, in which to be prominent, and so has lost prominence. The one who stood still is the Deputy Leader, Mr McLay, and for him to stand still is to lose ground to the former Minister of Transport, Mr Gair, and

Minister of Labour, Mr Bolger. Mr McLay went to the annual conference as the chosen successor by enough of his caucus colleagues to confirm his status as front-runner. He left the conference with support from his colleagues shaky, and having failed to impress the party in general. He remains the logical successor to Sir Robert, but in the House he has failed to confirm this. He has spoken too often without seeming to have much to say, or to provide new directions for his colleagues speaking after him. Mr Gair and Mr Bolger, on the other hand, have been more selective speakers in Parliament and have provided new directions — particularly Mr Gair. They have confirmed the excellent impressions they made at the annual conference. All ft'e potential Leaders

have been told by their caucus colleagues to go out and win. None of them seem any longer to have any lieutenants in caucus working to cobble up a coalition of support They have their supporters, but must do the work themselves.

This places Mr McLay at a great disadvantage. He has never been in Opposition since his election to Parliament in 1975. The others have all been in Opposition, and all did extremely well in Opposition during 1972-75. For Mr Bolger and Mr Birch, their first taste of Parliament was in Opposition, and that was when they first came to the front. With Mr Gair, Mr Bolger, and Mr McLay emerging as the three most prominent contenders for leadership, Mr Gair and Mr Bolger have the extra advantage that they know how to be effective in Opposition rthile Mr McLay has to learn for

himself. Those elected in 1984 are not expected to play a prominent role in the choice of leader because by the time caucus votes they will not, individually or as a group, have had time to work out precisely what sort of Leader is needed. They are likely to be sensitive to what their electorate organisations think, too. Those elected in 1978 (eight of them) and those elected in 1981 (also eight), will be looking for someone who can win in 1987. It is they who will decide who is chosen as Leader of the Opposition, and how the candidates act in Opposition, and the leadership provided between now and early next year. Only seven of the 37 National members have been in Opposition before. The other 30 are having to learn. The leadership candidate who leads them and teaches them will be the one who wins.