Aust. rural export record forecast

Press, 24 April 1984, Page 22

Aust. rural export record forecast

NZPA-AAP Canberra Australian rural exports are forecast to be a record next financial year but farm incomes are expected to fall sharply, according to the Bureau of Agricultural Economics. The bureau predicts gross farm product in constant prices will fall 10 per cent next financial year and says this will have a dampening effect on economic growth. In its March review of trends in the rural sector, the bureau forecasts exports of rural origin will rise $1.5 billion to a record $9.8 billion in the year, reflecting receipts from last season’s bumper grain crops. The record exports would provide a significant boost to Australia’s balance of payments, it said.

“However, in spite of these record export earnings, farm incomes are forecast to decline significantly in 1984-85,” it said.

“Based on assumed average seasonal conditions, the net value of rural production is forecast to fall to $3450 million. After allowing for inflation, this means that the real net value of rural production will fall about 28 per cent.” The gross value of rural production in 1984-85 was forecast to be $14.55 billion, down $450 million on this financial year.

The volume of rural output was expected to fall 9 per cent and crop production to decline 13 per cent.

Production from the livestock sector was likely to rise marginally. Average prices for crops

were expected to be unchanged and livestock prices were tipped to rise about 8 per cent. The average auction price for Australian wool next financial year was forecast to be in the range of 500 c a kilogram to 530 c clean, with a most likely average of 510 c.

“The improvement of the United States economy in 1983 resulted in net domestic consumption of apparel wool increasing 26 per cent,” the bureau said. “Australian exports of wool to the United States during the first seven months of this season increased over 230 per cent. Further expansion, however, is likely to be limited by available processing capacity.”