Aust. result follows N.Z. ?

Press, 20 October 1980, Page 1

Aust. result follows N.Z. ?

The Australian Federal election - results — with about a 6 per cent swing to Labour — may point backwards instead of forwards as far as New Zealand trends are concerned, according to a Christchurch political scientist.

Mr A. D. Mcßobie said the result was similar to the 1978 result here, with the governing party winning with a substantially reduced majority. It was difficult to foresee what the Australian result might mean in New Zealand’s next General Election, still more than a year away.

“Over the last 30 years. New Zealand and Australian politics have tended to go in. tandem, except for the 1957-60 Labour Government here, and so trends tend to parallel one another,” Mr Mcßobie said. His tentative conclusion was that what had happened in Australia now had already happened here in 1978, with some seats needing only a small swing to push them on to the Labour side the next time.

In Wellington, the Leader of the Opposition (Mr Rowling) said that while it looked at the moment like a • political victory in Australia for the coalition it was also a great personal victory for the Labour leader, Mr William Hayden, the Press Association reports. Mr Rowling said the swing suggested in the poll was a very big movement by any political standards.

'Tn its own way it was an indication of the very volatile nature of the political climate at present in our part of the world,” he said.

“We can put that swing in perspective if we realise that starting from the base of the figures for the last General Election in New Zealand, a 1 per cent swing on a two-party basis would change the Government here, and a 6 per cent swing would give Labour here a majority of 40 seats,” said Mr Rowling. "It does seem rough political justice that a party can apparently win something in excess of 52 per cent of the popular vote and still be in opposition,” he said.