Feet dragging on Namibia

Press, 23 September 1980, Page 16

Feet dragging on Namibia

From the “Economist,” London.

Having backed the wrong horse, Mr Joshua Nkomo, in Zimbabwe, the Soviet Union thinks it is on to a winner in Namibia. The Soviet Union is a long standing backer of the South West Africa People’s Organisation (5.W.A.P.0.). They have used their influence in Angola, where S.W.A.P.O. is based, to squeeze out the Chinese. Zimbabwe seems to have taught the Soviet Union two lessons: first, that it is impossible to predict with certainty the result of an African election; and second, that once in power a revolutionary movement can lose its fervour and look to non-revolutionary friends. Soviet policy toward Nambia is designed to avoid both pitfalls. The Soviet Union is advising S.W.A.P.O. not to accept Western proposals to hold elections supervised by the United Nations in Namibia. Members of

S.W.A.P.O. say this has been the consistent Soviet line since five Western powers (America, Britain, France, West Germany and Canada) began mediating between the South African Government and S.W.A.P.O. nearly four years ago. Since Zimbabwe became independent the Soviet Union has stepped up the pressure. The Soviet Union has impressed on S.W.A.P.O.’s President. Mr Sam Nujoma, that neither the South Africans nor the Western powers can be trusted. The Soviet Union says that the only sure way for S.W.A.P.O. to gain power is through a successful guerrilla war. They know that, the longer the war lasts, the stronger international pressure will become for sanctions against South Africa. This would embarrass the West. The Soviet Union also needs more time to build up a core of its own committed sympathisers within S.W.A.P.0,, which is far from

being a revolutionary movement now. Mr Nujoma waxes hot or cold over Soviet blandishments, according to how he. views his chances of winning the Namibian elections. Mr P. W. Botha’s Government in South Africa is also anxious to sustain the impasse over Namibia. The South African Foreign Minister, Mr Pik Botha, wrote to the U.N. SecretaryGeneral Dr Kurt Waldheim, on August 30. to say his Government was ready to discuss setting in motion the plan to bring Namibia to independence. But Mr Botha implied that this would be dependent on the U.N. and in particular Dr Waldheim, proving their impartiality over Namibia. This presumably means that the U.N. General Assembly must reverse its decision to regard S.W.A.P.O. as the “sole and authentic” representative of the Namibian people. If so, the delay will be endless. The South Africans believe that a delay will work to the advantage of the Democratic Turnhalle Alliance, the multi-

racial party which now enjoys executive and legislative powers in the territory. Further delay will also give the South African army more time to attack S.W.A.P.O. guerrillas in their Angolan bases. This could cause deeper rifts within a movement already beset with internecine suabbles. Last month S.W.A.P.O.’s vicepresident and six other leaders, who all came from the Caprivi area, were expelled. Faced with prevarication from both sides, the five Western powers hope to arrange a summit meeting of those African States which exercised a restraining influence on the guerrilla movements in Zimbabwe. The leaders of these countries might be able to persuade Mr Nujoma not to listen to the Soviet Union and to agree to elections. In return the Western powers would promise not to block any moves in the U.N. to impose sanctions on South Africa if, after six months, Mr Botha's Government had not agreed to implement the plan for independence.