C.I.A. predicts Hassan will fall

Press, 1 November 1979, Page 6

C.I.A. predicts Hassan will fall

NZPA-Reuter Washington

A United States Government Intelligence report has forecast that King Hassan of Morocco could be overthrown within a year because of ineffectual leadership and involvement in a Saharan war which he cannot win.

The report was compiled by the State Department from assessments by four Government agencies which were divided over how long the monarchy could survive but agreed that the King was in danger. It also predicted that whatever happened to King Hassan, Morocco would depart from its present pro-Western foreign policy. The report, prepared for the Carter Administration and made available to Reuters, said widespread corruption in the Moroccan Government and economic difficulties could prompt a coup d’etat against the King by the security forces. It said the Central Intelligence Agency was the most pessimistic about his prospects. The C.I.A. reported: “Hassan will lose control of events — probably within a year — and eventually lose his throne.” State Department experts believed, however, that he could remain for several more years.

The National Security Agency agreed with the C.I.A. and Pentagon analysts said they expected the King would continue in power “at least over the next year.” Moroccan forces are fighting guerrillas of the Algerian-backed Polisario Front, which is trying to win control of the Western Sahara from Morocco.

The report was prepared before President Carter’s decision last week to supply sophisticated arms to King Hassan to encourage a negotiated settlement of the Saharan conflict.

The Deputy Secretary of State (Mr Warren Christopher) travelled to Rabat yesterday to explain the decision, which split the Carter Administration and provoked criticism in and out of Congress.