THE PRESS TUESDAY, JULY 17, 1979. Bonus from the power planners

Press, 17 July 1979, Page 18

THE PRESS TUESDAY, JULY 17, 1979. Bonus from the power planners

Even if the estimators of New Zealand s electricity needs have seen their forecasts come unstuck, they may take some satisfaction in giving the country some respite in the scramble to build electricity generating stations. Earlier estimates of the demand for electricity do not permit a halting of the expansion programme; they allow, however, for a slowing down of construction. The latest estimates, yet to be made public, are unlikely to alter the trend set last year.

Such a respite could hardly come at a more convenient time. While the power planners of a decade ago did not foresee the severity of the oil crisis of the late 19705, or what is likely to follow in the 1980 s, their decisions have produced a relative abundance of electricity supplies at a time when capital will have to be found for the production of other fuels.

They cannot take all the credit for the present, fairly comfortable position: and even the present sufficiency of electricty supply depends on adequate rainfalls in both islands, and on an increasing use of thermal generation in the North Island. Price increases have undoubtedly restrained the increase in the demand for electricity.

Most energy experts seem to be agreed that New Zealand has ample energy resources for many years provided that coal, gas, and hydro power are properly managed. Having been an

importer of energy for several generations, New Zealand is not accustomed to the idea that it has resources of energy that, because of their scale and pricing in relation to the world costs for energy, could make New Zealand a net exporter of energy.

Ideally energy would be exported not raw, but in the form of manufactures. Best of all, the country’s energy resources, and particularly renewable hydro power, will be a basis for regional development. This must apply particularly to the South Island, which until recently has suffered from a precarious electricity supply. Unless the South Island suffers from a quite extraordinarily dry winter, the days of power cuts and emergencies at last seem to be ended. That is good news for the South Island.

More important for the country as a whole is the greater chance that is afforded to make rapid progress in producing alternative liquid fuels for transport. The fact that some electricity schemes can proceed at a slower pace than was once envisaged is not a cause for bemoaning the expectations of power planners in previous years. The two vital considerations are to maintain a comfortable surplus of electricity generating capacity for industrial expansion, and to make overdue decisions on the production and use of the other energy resources. _