India’s crisis

Press, 17 July 1979, Page 18

India’s crisis

If the Indian Prime Minister, Mr Desai, had not resigned, his party would almost certainly have been defeated in a vote of confidence. The defections from the Janata Party over the last few weeks still make it vulnerable to a vote of confidence, but the party may regroup around a new leader. Political crises of the kind India is having are seldom resolved easily and the shape of India’s future Government is hard to predict. The Janata Party was formed of a hotchpotch of largely Right-wing parties with the intention of defeating the Government of Mrs Indira Gandhi, which it did. Its factions include extremists who have been considered partly to blame for Hindu-Muslim riots in West Bengal this year. Some Janata Party leaders think that the party would be better off without some of the factions; it may yet prove to be the case that it was easier to get rid of Mr Desai than to find a successor.

Mr Desai’s term was not distinguished. His son, like Mrs Gandhi’s son in the previous Government, was the subject of allegations of political corruption, the management of economic affairs was inept, and fighting among parties in the coalition absorbed the attention of the Government while troubles increased in the country. One of the most serious problems was over the police. About half of India’s 900,000 police struck this year. Most police are under state governments. The Government used a central Government police force, the Central Reserve Police, to put down the strikes. However, the low pay, the working hours and the right to form a union were all contentious issues with the Central Reserve Police as well. They reasserted the authority of the central Government but demanded concessions in return. Their concerns were also touchy issues with the Central Industrial Security Force, a police body which guards ports, nuclear installa-

tions, power plants and other important installations and facilities. The Janata Party’s ability to control the forces of law and order became doubtful.

The person mainly responsible for toppling Mr Desai is Mr Raj Narain, who, if for nothing else, will have a place in India’s history as a man who unseated two Prime Ministers. He brought about Mrs Gandhi’s downfall by bringing a case against her for alleged election malpractices, and then running against her successfully in an election. As Minister of Health under Mr Desai, Mr Narain was less effective in persuading Indians to reduce their population. While he was advocating celibacy as the means of reducing the population growth more children were born. He was removed from office a year ago. Last month Mr Narain left the Janata Party, and a host of other defections followed.

The two top candidates for the post of Prime Minister are Mr Jagjivan Ram, the Defence Minister, and Mr Charan Singh, the Finance Minister. Both hold the post of Deputy Premier. Mr Singh has spelled out his views on the development of India in detail. He wants to get away from the use of the major heavy industries of India as a base for economic development and use instead the small landholder whose surplus capital would be directed into small industries which would feed the bigger industries. •He sees this as a way of helping to provide work for India’s 636 million people, 42 per cent of whom are under 15. Mr Singh believes that India has similarities to the Japan of a number of years ago and could follow the same path to development. Such a policy is likely to bring him into conflict with Mr George Fernandes, the Industry Minister under Mr Desai, who is a socialist. Mr Ram is leader of India’s millions of untouchables. He is an experienced politician and may feel surer of his political support than does Mr Singh.