Govt change ahead; Sir Keith may get nod from Queen

Press, 26 February 1977, Page 1

Govt change ahead; Sir Keith may get nod from Queen

By

CEDRIC MENTIPLAY

The Cabinet reshuffle promised by the Prime Minister (Air Muldoon) before Parliament resumes in May will be much bigger than predicted.

Two probabilities — neither of which is yet officially confirmed—will play a big influence.

First, the Minister of State (Sir Keith Holyoake) is favoured to become New Zealand’s next GovernorGeneral. and second. Mr Muldoon is expected to relinquish the Finance portfolio and in its place take up the mantle of Minister of Foreign Affairs. Most of the retailoring of Cabinet is likely to take place around these two main moves.

Sir Keith, who recently celebrated his seventythird birthday, has been tipped for a long time as a candidate for the post of Vice-Regal. His unique value in this capacity lies in two fields—he and Lady Holyoake are well and nersoriallv known to the Oueen. because he has been either Prime Minister or Leader of the Opposition for almost the full length of her reign, and as well he has an unrivalled knowledge of the primary production industry. He was instrumental in forming the producer boards, and was president of the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organisation as early as 1955. A third relevant point is that Sir Keith has never lost contact with immediate and current events. Since he stepped down as Prime Minister he has been an effective presence in Parliament, and in his present role as Minister of State has been able to throw the weight of his experience into international matters. The idea of Mr Muldoon’s vacating the finance role is not a new one. Indeed, he was forced into control

of that portfolio because of the acute economic circumstances existing when he came to power in November, 1975. It is noteworthy that at that time he appointed both an Associate Minister of Finance (Mr Wilkinson), and a Deputy Minister (Mr Gair). The situation is not unlike that during the regime of the late Sir Sidney Holland, who held the finance portfolio most of the time, with the late Mr C. M. Bowden as his associate Minister. It was only when. Mr Bowden resigned this position that the first National Government acquired a fully independent Minister of Finance (the late Mr J. T. Watts). In recent years the roles of Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs have tended to run together. Often at overseas conferences, foreign nations, particularly the small Pacific communities, have tended to prefer to deal with New’ Zealand’s “top man,’’ rather than his deputy.

As a result, Mr Muldoon has had to do a lot of Islands touring, as has his deputy (Mr Taiboys), who is also Minister of Foreign Affairs. The move towards

self-government by our former Islands territories (the Cook islands and Niue) have moved these islands from the orbit of the old Island Territories Department into that of Foreign Affairs.

All this has meant that Mr Muldoon has been torn three ways. As Prime Minister, his presence has been required in New Zealand, but he has also been obliged to attend top-level Pacific Island conferences, and has also had to make his annual pilgrimage as Minister of Finance to the annual meetings of the World Bank and other financial bodies.

It seems probable that this year Mr Wilkinson will be confirmed as Minister of Finance, allowing him to concentrate more closely on purely financial matters. (At present he is also Attorney - General, Minister of Customs, and Minister of Statistics). Mr Gair, who is also Minister of Housing and Regional Development, may well remain as deputy in the finance field. Mr Talbovs would hardly regret the loss of foreign affairs. As Minister of Overseas Trade he has enough travelling to do — and there were times last

year when his trails seemed to be doing the other’s work.

Other Cabinet changes are likely to be minimal: it is doubtful whether Sir Keith will be replaced as Minister of State. There may be a reallocation of Mr Wilkinson’s portfolios, to allow him to concentrate on finance. If customs is reallocated, Mr Allen could get it. Several other Cabinet members have indefinite futures—because of age, competence, or state of health—but it would be surprising if any of them were moved at this stage. Any injection of new blood into the Cabinet will probably have to wait another year—until just before the beginning of the crucial 1978 session.

An interesting situation may develop about the time Her Majesty chooses to announce the name of her new deputy in NewZealand—and there is nothing to prevent this being done before the Royal couple leaves New Zealand on March 7. If Sir Keith is indeed the chosen one. New Zealand will have, its second byelection of 1977 —a possibility which is already being rumoured widely.