Sir John looks to N.Z. ’s future

Press, Volume CXV, Issue 33776, 24 February 1975, Page 17

Sir John looks to N.Z. ’s future

A glimpse into the challenges and changes which New Zealanders will face in the last quarter of the twentieth century was given in ( hristchurch on Friday night by Sir John Marshall when he opened the eighteenth Rotary conference of District 298 which embraces the whole of the South Island. What he forecast produced no unusual surprises or shocks. His 30-minute address covered a broad canvas with the logical precision of unfolding developments based largely on those of the last 25 years. Almost 1000 Rotarians and their wives from the 14 clubs; in the South Island are attending the conference this week-end which will include guest speakers and panel discussions as well as social activity. Delegates were welcomed by the district governor of; Rotarv (Mr I. T. Galloway)! and the Mayor of Christchurch (Mr H. G. Hay). | Of New Zealand’s rate of population growth he said he was convinced the country ■ would not have zero popula-i tion growth no matter how persuasive the theoretical! arguments for it might be.; The country would have 5m 1 people before the end of the century, he said. LONGEVITY This growth would be aided and abetted at the

other end of the life cycle by the advances of medical science. People would live longer even if toward the end it was merely a kind of medicated survival. More people would mean economic growth, higher standards of living, greater productivity, more skills, more qualifications and higher genera! education. These in turn would require expansion of industry, greater demands on the country’s energy resources, a greater concern for the

; environment, and better control of pollution. More productivity, income.; and services would bring the ' opportunity for the greater! use of leisure, he said. ;■ “All this raises the fundamental question of whether! ' we will have the moral fibre and self-discipline to handie I the problems of material growth — whether we can; ; make the social adjustments . to care for an aging popula- ! tion, whether we can provide the scientific and technical; ' knowledge to take advantage! of the resources which are ( available,” said Sir John. FARMING TOP i Farming would remain by; (far the Dominion’s most im- ; portant industry and its! ! largest exporter. ManufacturI ing would expand steadily [and earn an increasing proportionate share as would forestry, tourism and to a i minor extent, fisheries and l minerals although the latter could leap ahead. i In the next 25 years fewer; 1 people would be engaged in [I farming but with more in in- 1 Idustry, and still more in the I [servicing industry. ; Sir John said that while ' the total volume of production would undoubtedly inI crease with the greater "number of people involved, un- ; less the output per head of population could be increased [there could be a larger population sharing the same production wealth. This would give a static standard of living, or even a declining one. ; The emphasis for the counI try’s economic development, in the next. 25 years was;

likely to be in those areas; where greater productivity [could be achieved—in farming, marketing, and with ; special emphasis on capital; intensive industries which could use the country’s limited labour force best. STEEL ALLOYS Sir John said he was confident that high quality steel; alloys for export would be produced in the next 25 years [while the possibility of finding oil was bright. New Zea- ; land had enough resources of, energy available for develop-; ment in this century without! having to resort to nuclear; power stations although the! rapid advance of scientific! and technical knowledge! might change the pattern of! development. It was in the realm of scientific expansion where forecasting could often be more precise and specific than elsewhere, he said. In the last 25 years the ! number of holidays had been [gradually increased while the hours of work have; gradually been reduced. This!

trend was likely to be accelerated in the next 25 years. This in turn would lead to greater consideration for the demands of leisure. . Of human values, Sir John said it was much easier to ; attempt to forecast the i future in terms of material progress but that it was more important to ensure that human welfare re- , rnained paramount. Although attempts may be made to disguise it, New Zealand’s way of life was !;based on the Christian faith and the standards of conduct [which went with it. It was [his belief that the surest .guide to the abundant life, the happy and worth-while, life, was to be found in the [ simple but profound teachings of this faith. He said he took comfort ■ from the lessons of history that the excessive permissiveness in Western society today may well be a passing phase. ■ There were signs, he said, that this permissiveness; was passing and that the era j of violent protest seemed to I be giving way to a more [reasoned frame of mind. ■