Conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan feared

Press, Volume CXIV, Issue 33654, 2 October 1974, Page 13

Conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan feared

(By

RAM SURESH,

an N.Z.P.A.-Reuter correspondent)

KABUL. ( A dispute between Afghanistan and Pakistan over tribal autonomy has gravely worsened relations between the two Moslem neighbours and raised fears of armed dashes. Ringing political rhetoric from both sides has created a war-like atmosphere. But although major conflict is not [expected, knowledgeable [sources do not rule out clashes along the mountainous border between the two countries. They feel that neither 'country can afford a war, 'particularly not the rag-tag iAfghan Army. But they are apparently being pushed into ; a war-like stance by internal (pressure. The issue involved is the long-standing dispute over Afghan support for the idea of autonomy for the Pakhtoon and Baluch tribes living on Pakistan’s western borders. It has brought relations between the two countries to their lowest point since President Mohammed Daoud, a great supporter of the tribal causes, came to power in a coup 18 months ago. General Daoud, who is described by diplomats as a born Pakistan-hater, began the w’ar of words the very day he came to power in July last year, by singling out Pakistan as the only country with which Afghanistan had a dispute. Neither side has let up the tirade since, and Afghanistan’s military rulers could only have been heartened by the bitter guerrilla war launched by groups of tribesmen against Pakistani forces, and the general political crises in Baluchistan and the North-West Frontier province of Pakistan. The Afghan Government supports the demand that Pakistan should hold a refer-

lendum to decide if the peoples of the two regions want to remain inside Pakistan. or join in an autonomous unit to be called Pashtoonistan or Pakhtoonistan. The Pakistanis say that this is interference in their internal affairs. But a recent [Kabul statement said that Afghanistan never considered the two areas integral parts of Pakistan. It said that the homeland of the tribesmen had been forcibly divided by the British. But the Afghans are vague on whether they would be prepared to part with the ( Pakhtoon areas of Afghanistan if they also decided to . link up with an independent Pakhtoonistan. Despite denials on both ; sides observers believe that ' the two countries have moved up their troops along the borders in recent months. , The Pakistani Prime Minis-! ter (Mr Zulfikar Ali Bhutto)' . said in an interview earlier ‘ this month that he would use j his air force against the Bal- ’ uch guerrillas if they did not surrender all their arms by . October 15. ’ The Afghan Government says: “It wrould mean war. J We cannot sit idle when our I Baluch brothers are being , attacked.” The Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister (Mr Waheed ; Abdullah) told the “Washing- ! ton Post” in an interview ■ last week that the border disf pute would erupt into a full- . scale war if Mr Bhutto went ’ ahead with his bombing threat. He claimed support for his , country from neighbours he J did not name, and said that' I the war would not remain a , local affair. “I repeat that it won’t be . a local affair —it will be global. We have made diplo- [ matic inquiries all over the . world, and we know that we J can count on support,” Mr Abdullah said. t He was clearly hitting at t possible support from two ' h‘ s country’s closest

friends, the Soviet .Union and India. The Russians have sup-, plied most of the hardware, including some MiGl9[ fighter planes and medium [ tanks, to the Afghan Army! and an Indian diplomat said that India would certainly get interested if there was a war in the region. But as one Western diplo-l mat said: “Support is all; right. But direct military involvement is something else.” It is on direct military support that the Afghan Government should be counting. It

must ’ be aware c 4 the (superiority, in men; and [weapons, of the Pakistani Army. The possibility of Indian I intervention must be considered in the light of India’s repeated statements that it is not interested in any further break up of Pakistan. According to diplomats the [lndian Foreign Minister (Mr Swaran Singh) made that position clear to the Afghani Government during a visit : last June, though the vocal Indian support to Aljghanis-

■ tan on the Pakhtoon issue I continues. 1 The Soviet Union is not expected to risk a major big1 Power confrontation by get- [ ting involved. Iran, a close ally of Pakis- ; tan and Afghanistan's . [ western neighbour, is re- ‘ ' ported to have offered to t mediate if the two sides t . could agree on the role it t - should play. : Some observers believe i that the powerful level of 1 [ Iranian aid could play a big t I role in preventing fighting in ( • the area. 1