CHINESE HELP EXPECTED

Press, Volume CXI, Issue 32775, 27 November 1971, Page 17

CHINESE HELP EXPECTED

(By

LOUIS HEREN.

. of "The Times,” through N.Z.P.A.)

LONDON, Nov. 26.

Reports from Delhi have it that India is preparing to launch fullscale attacks against Pakistan on November 28.

Whether or not the present confused fighting along the East Pakistan frontier will develop into full-scale war, Pakistan is confident that its forces will not be defeated. One reason for this confidence is the belief that China will intervene in the event of war. Much importance is attached to the arrival of a Chinese delegation in Rawalpindi yesterday. The delegation is led by Mr Li Shui Ching, Minister for the First Ministry of Machine Building, but the defence and foreign ministries are also represented. They will have talks with the economic and defence advisers to President Yahya Khan. The Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan (Mr Chang Tung) also said again that his country would stand by Pakistan in the event of hostilities.

: Assurances have apparently been given that (Chinese aid will be consider-

ably more than was generally assumed after Mt Bhutto’s recent visit to Peking. Apart from arms deliveries, Chinese forces are expected

to assert pressure along the Indian frontier. This would hold down Indian mountain divisions. Pakistan forces in East Pakistan are nevertheless outnumbered, and must be prepared to fight on more than one front.

They are fighting on their own ground, which with its many rivers is easy to defend, but they must be expected to yield some territory should the Indian Army attack in force. For instance, if the attack is pressed at Jessore the defending forces could fall back if necessary to a number of small river lines until the Madhumati is reached. This could be held indefinitely against larger forces than India could deploy. But the territory yielded would stretch from the confluence of the Madhumati and the Ganges, above Kushti, down to Khulna and the sea.

This would be sufficient, if this was the Indian intention, to proclaim an independent Bangla Desh.

This scenario does not dismay Pakistan, perhaps because of confidence in its own forces to delay an Indian advance, but almost certainly because of the

promise of Chinese intervention.

The Chinese would not be expected to invade Indian territory. The very presence of Chinese troops on the frontier is expected to deter India from large-scale incursions into East Pakistan.

The Pakistan Army is also poised to attack in Kashmir, where about six weeks of good campaigning weather remain before snow and cold make fighting difficult. This Pakistan appreciation is, of course, weakened by the fact that India’s objectives are not known. General war would not necessarily bring an attack in the Jessore district of East Pakistan. In the West the initiative does not necessarily rest with Pakistan.

But Pakistan is obviously fairly confident in its ability to defend its two wings..