Counting The Cost Of Space

Press, Volume CIX, Issue 32119, 15 October 1969, Page 14

Counting The Cost Of Space

The Space Task Group, instructed to report to President Nixon on the future of the United States’ space exploration programme, has taken a realistic view of costs. “ Manned exploration of the planets is the most “ challenging and most comprehensive of the many “long-range goals available to the nation, at this “ time ”, said the report, “ with manned exploration “ of Mars as the next step towards this goal ”. The report went on to emphasise, however, that time was not in any sense the essence of the contract; a manned landing on Mars should be a goal, not a commitment to an immediate programme. Mr Nixon clearly welcomed the group’s cautious optimism about the practicability of reaching, in manned flights, vastly farther into space than was necessary to land the Apollo 11 astronauts on the moon. The astronauts themselves, when they met Congress, seem to have joined a characteristically modest appraisal of what they had achieved with an understanding of what journeying to Mars, or even farther afield, would involve, technologically and economically. They urged that the space programme be continued; but, they suggested, because of pressing calls on the public purse, the programme should not have any overriding priority. Mr Nixon has endorsed this view; and it is one to which Congress will most certainly subscribe. Many things will affect the fixing of a firm programme. Cost is only one of them, but might yet be held paramount Planetary alignment is another. The group thought that the United States might well go ahead with an exploratory tour of the outer planets, using Mariner-type vehicles, during 1977-79, for there will not be another convenient alignment for 180 years. A round trip to Mars, some 62 million miles from Earth, would take up to 600 days, compared with the eight days taken by the moon spacecraft A landing on Mars in 1986 would cost, on present reckoning, about $24,000 million. This sum represents about 11 days of America’s gross national product (or 4J years of New Zealand’s G.N.P.). Congress, preoccupied with a soaring tax burden, including war and defence costs, and the pressing needs of the nation’s welfare programme, might well shy away from spending on such a scale. Even if a Mars flight were timed for 1981—taking into account that Mars and Earth make their closest approach once in every 26 months—the technological problems to be overcome would be formidable. Mr Nixon seems to be leaning to the view that a manned Mars landing might be “scheduled”—if the term can be so used—for “ some time within the next “half-century”. Even this will call for preliminary tasks, and expensive ones, to be undertaken without delay. It is hoped that two improved Mariner vehicles will orbit the planet in 1971, when more than 70 per cent of its surface will be photographed and possible landing sites fixed. There are also plans for an orbit of Mars in 1973 by a spacecraft which will attempt to soft-land scientific equipment. A new Saturn 5 rocket, designed for the lengthened space journeying of the future, should be ready towards the end of the next decade.

Whatever Mr Nixon may decide on the major question of future outer-space flights, Congress will have the final say. It will hesitate to retard space exploration to an extent that might imperil America’s lead in the space race; but it is unlikely to consent to giving a Mars landing priority over urgent domestic needs. There has already been some shift of emphasis from maimed to unmanned vehicles. The change might not only be vastly cheaper, but, in the meantime, more productive scientifically.