CRISIS UPON CRISIS LIKELY REPERCUSSIONS OF THE RHODESIAN REBELLION

Press, Volume CV, Issue 30951, 6 January 1966, Page 8

CRISIS UPON CRISIS LIKELY REPERCUSSIONS OF THE RHODESIAN REBELLION

IBu

GEOFFREY TAYLOR

in the "Guardian,” Manchester!

(Reprinted by arrangement)

The Rhodesian rebellion begins to look more and more like the start of a long period of conflict in southern Africa in which Bi itain will be closely involved.

The conflict appears likely to fall into three stages• of the rebellion, the reconstruction of Rhodesia, and th e black African accounts with South Africa and P which is renutrnant Britain will be under strong pressure to take action which is repugnant to many people for one reason or another. Resistance to this pressure will further antagonise the memberStates of the Organisation of African Unity and the Commonwealth, and this antagonism will itself have disagreeable consequences foi cooperation between the races.

Britain is rightly committed to assume control of Rhodesia iso that discrimination against the African majority may be ended. But the defeat of the rebellion is not yet in sight. Until it is achieved, relations with the African States can hardly improve and are liable to get worse. Is this important? In hard political terms, it might be argued, nothing is lost if Britain is no longer recognised by a number of small and impoverished countries. We might eventually save money. But in a world already torn by divisions, another division, running deep and having race as its origin, would be sad. British Governments, Conservative and Labour, have set some store by belonging to a multiracial Commonwealth and exercising an influence for good in international affairs. What becomes of the influence for good when the representatives of African States walk out on the British Prime Minister? British Opinion Moreover the worse relations with the African States become, the harder it will be to mobilise British public opinion behind the use of military force in Rhodesia if the sanctions are not effective. Those who stand for kith

land kin will find their ranks | augmented if kith and kin living under African Governments are victimised or expelled. So far, there is no suggestion that expatriates in African countries will suffer because of the resolution to sever diplomatic relations. But the severance of relations is a weapon which can be used only once. The frustration born of impotence may explode, as it has so often done in Africa, into violence. Taking a charitable view of the Government’s contingency planning, and assuming that British control is eventually established in Rhodesia, what will happen next? The Prime Minister has said that the advance towards majority rule will be measured not by time but by achievement. In other words, Rhodesian Africans will have to show that they can run a multiracial State efficiently. In i theory 10 years seems a short 'enough time in which to qualify Africans by education land experience in office, for | the duties of government and i administration. Colonials Again j Such a period can be calmly envisaged, or even insisted I upon, now. When the time I comes will it not be regarded las wildly unrealistic? It is

fairly safe to predict that within 12 months of the assumption of British control, the O.A.U. will be passing resolutions for immediate independence on the basis of one man one vote. Britain will find itself back in the colonial situation from which it thought it had escaped for ever. The nationalist parties will have been made legal again. Will they be willing to wait until “achievement” has been put to the test? If not, will Britain be prepared to couni tenance years of repressive ac tion against African riots and boycotts? Or will it say that the ideal solution of an efficient multiracial State is unattainable and hand over prematurely to the majority? “Prematurely” perhaps ought to be defined. One consequence of a premature grant of independence to the majority in Rhodesia would be the withdrawal of large num 'bers of Europeans. Many [others, apart from the Euro peans, would then suffer too IMr Smith has threatened to expel the breadwinners I for half a million Africans tn Malawi, Zambia, and Mozambique. At least they are in Rhode sia for him to expel them Their employment has been created largely by European enterprise. A premature grant of independence would be one in which these Africans gained proper human rights and dignities, but in exchange for their jobs.

Ultimate Objective But in the eyes of Africans can Rhodesia be more than a dry run for the eventual toppling of South Africa? President Nkrumah has his enemies in Africa but he speaks, one may be sure, for every articulate member of his race when he proclaims his aim to be the liberation of the entire continent from white supremacy. Again, South Africa will prove to be principally a British responsibility. Britain is South Africa’s largest trading partner and her biggest investor. It will be cogently argued that Britain is economically South Africa’s mainstay. When the African States arc able to devote their whole attention to South Africa, will they not demand at least an economic boycott, perhaps military action, by the United Nations? What will Britain's policy be then? Any commitment to end white supremacy in South Africa would have to be total to be worth making at all Half measures would raise all the suspicions of British policy now apparent over Rhodesia. To stop all trade with South Africa would be damaging to Britain’s economy to stop imports of gold would presumably disrupt its finance. Even then, sanctions alone might not prove effective, and military action would have to be contemplated. A war with South Africa would be hard and costly in human life. Yet not to join in whatever world-wide action were decided upon would put Britain in the position of upholding the very white supre-

r.iacy we have set out to defeat in Rhodesia. Mr Tom Mboya advised the colonial powers to “scram out of Africa.” How simple a soluition this would be! The old I imperial albatross will be hanging round our necks for a long time yet.