Economist Says Another U.S. Depression Likely

Press, Volume CIII, Issue 30471, 19 June 1964, Page 12

Economist Says Another U.S. Depression Likely

Although there seemed no reason at present why it should happen, it was likely that some time there would be another depression in the United States, Dr. Gerhard Tintner, a distinguished

American economist at present visiting New Zealand, said in Christchurch yesterday. Dr. Tintner said it was still not known what caused depressions, and if another depression did come it could stem from any of many causes.

Automation with its attendant labour problems might trigger a depression, and it should also be kept in mind that in the United States much of production was concerned with armaments. Not As Serious

He thought a depression in the United States would affect the rest of the world badly enough, but probably not as seriously as it did in the 1930’5.

History might not repeat itself, but the danger was that if there were signs of a depression the governments would not act quickly enough or drastically enough to forestall it.

There could be signs of impending trouble, for instance if the motor industry got into difficulties it would be a bad sign. Dr. Tintner said the American steel industry was not doing very well. It was suffering from the development of new materials, such as plastics, and was also suffering from outdated machinery and inefficient management. N.Z. Steel Plan He felt the establishment of a steel industry in New Zealand would not be a goon move, partly because of the limited future through the development of. other materials, and also because ot the extremely competitive nature of the steel industry. However, such an industry might be useful in time of war when supplies from overseas could not be obtained. In New Zealand he had

been surprised at the lack of data, and particularly consumption data, as far as economic planning was concerned, Dr. Tintner said. A more serious effort to collect such data should be made. Without it, it was not possible to plan and carry out a rational economic policy. Born In Germany Professor Tintner is professor of economics and mathematics at the .University of Southern California. Born in 1907 in Germany, of Austrian parents, he has been a United States citizen since 1942. He studied economics, statistics and law at the University of Vienna, and also studied at Harvard University, Columbia University, the University of California, Leland Stanford University in the United States, at the Institut Henri Poincare in Paris, and at Cambridge University, England. He has been an economics consultant to many organisations and has lectured in his special field of econometrics (the application of mathematics and statistics to economic programmes) at Cambridge. He has visited many European countries to lecture and has worked with the United Nations Technical Assistance scheme in India and South America. He joined the staff of the University of Southern California in 1963. Dr. Tintner is visiting New Zealand under the auspices of the American State Department, and will visit Australia and Japan for a month to lecture before returning to the United States. He has spent 10 days in Wellington before coming to Christchurch, and will visit Dunedin before returning to Wellington. He is lecturing at universities in New Zealand during his stay.