NUCLEAR POWER THE POSSIBILITIES OF AN EXPORT INDUSTRY

Press, Volume XCI, Issue 27675, 3 June 1955, Page 12

NUCLEAR POWER THE POSSIBILITIES OF AN EXPORT INDUSTRY

[By

SIR FRANCIS SIMON,

F.R.S., Professor of Thermodijnamics in th* University of Oxford]

[Reprinted by Arrangement with the "Sunday Times"} Recently the British Prime Minister said: “Within two years the first power station producing electricity from nuclear energy will be working. Already many companies m this country are exploring markets overseas for their new products in this field. We hope to produce an entirely new export trade. The scope is enormous. Throughout the Commonwealth and Empire wide areas are hungry for power. Nuclear energy may be the way of raising living standards in these areas.” In this article Sir Francis Simon discusses the implications of the Prime Minister’s statement.

A country’s standard of living is largely determined by its rate of power consumption. The advent of nuclear power is therefore bound to affect all of it, but its impact will differ from country to country. In this article we are concerned with nuclear power for export and not for the home market of such highly industrialised countries as Britain. However, it should be recalled that the power systems of these countries are so great that a vast capital expenditure would be needed to supplement them by com* parable amounts of nuclear power. Thus, any substantial change-over to nuclear power cannot make itself felt before about the end of the century. The position is quite different in the under-developed countries, which are usually under-developed because they lack power sources. In these areas even small amounts of energy may have a very great effect. In addition, nuclear power stations may be economically feasible even if the power is produced at a price which would not be competitive in say, Britain. Finally, the negligible weight of nuclear fuel will make u possible to erect power stations in remote areas; to which the transport of coal or oil would be prohibitively expensive. All these points combine in favouring nuclear power in underdeveloped countries. We may soon see it being used, for instance, to pump water for irrigation purposes, to open up mines in out of the way places, to provide power for railways through desert regions and later, perhaps, to extend agriculture by providing fresh water from the sea.

Development of Techniques Which countries are able to develop the techniques of nuclear power? The first thing is to realise the size of the effort. We are still at the very be- ! ginning and no nuclear power station (has yet run under realistic conditions. | Moreover, the complexities of the techniques are much greater than those of. say, the steam or gas turI bine. There is not one clear-cut I path to follow; many stations working 1 on different principles will have to be built and tested until we know which is the most reliable and economic. To achieve this we will need the best brains of science and technology. Many countries, including some of the small ones like Holland and Switzerland, possess top-class scientists and technologists, but the size of the, effort required is so big that only; a few countries can muster the necessary industrial and scientific resources to attack the problem successfully. The position may ease if fissile material is put at the disposal of other countries under the Eisenhower programme, but nevertheless it seems that for the time being only the United States, the United Kingdom and Russia have to be considered as serious competitors for the nuclear export market. There are strong incentives for getting a hold on this export market. One of them is political. Countries which supply power stations are bound to gain influence with their customers, and political prestige must be one of the main driving forces in the nuclear power policy of the United States. To the Russians, nuclear power is no doubt very important as

a way of increasing their hold over their satellites and of drawing other countries into their sphere. Economic Factor Dominant

Although the political aspects are far from negligible for Britain, the economic factor is the dominant one. Britain’s industry has up to relatively recent times been shielded from the cold wind of competition by her pcsition in world politics, but now has to sell in highly competitive markets. The export of nuclear power stations is particularly suited to this country. The British genius for science and technology, which has already made the present developments possible, is too well known to need elaboration. In addition, Britain's economy is big enough to permit developments' on the necessary scale. The stakes are certainly high. If the non-industrialised countries were to increase their power consumption a head of population to even, say, one third of the present British figure, then power stations rth twenty to thirty thousand mili pounds would eventually b e needed. As this level of power consumption is relatively modest, it is obvious that in .the long run the field is practically without limits. To use these opportunities, we shall have to think ahead. The development of small units for export must not be overshadowed by the development of big stations for the home market; a proper distribution of effort is called for. In fact, the export market could become an essential factor in financing the whole nuclear enterprise. Whether we are successful will depend largely on the scientific and technological manpower which is available. Here a serious word of warning is needed. The educational system of the country has not yet adjusted itself to the new technological era. Modern technology makes imperative a switch from unskilled to skilled labour, as well as a switch from the arts to the sciences at universities. So far, no discernible attempts are being made to deal with these problems on an adequate scale and with proper urgency; in particular the dearth of high-class scientists and technologists is now so great that it is already holding back many industries. Even worse, the position is still deteriorating as the neglect of science in the schools threatens to starve the supply of scientists at the roots.

While this unfortunate state of affairs is common to most Western countries (including the United States), the Russians have managed to build up an active community of scientists and technologists': and they are training more of these key people each year than are all the countries of the West put together. The American spy hunt has given the public the impression that the Russians can proceed only by stealing so-called “secrets.” However, the developments of recent years concerning weapons, nuclear power and also pure physics show how the land lies, although the public at large are still unaware of the true position. To sum up: the export of nuclear power stations offers an ideal and nearly unlimited field for British enterprise. However, if we want ;o compete successfully, some profound changes will have to take place, especially in the educational sphere—and they will not come about automatically.