The War in China

Press, Volume LXXIV, Issue 22300, 14 January 1938, Page 10

The War in China

Though no official account has been issued of the decisions reached by the Japanese Imperial Council, it seems cafe to draw two conclusions. The first is that the control of national policy has passed from the Cabinet and the Diet to a higher authority consisting of the Imperial advisers, the military and naval chiefs, and a minority of civilians representing the ordinary civil government and industrial and banking Interests. And in this higher authority effective power seems to be in the hands, of the amiy representatives. That parliamentary democracy will ever be re-established in Japan is in the highest degree unlikely. The second conclusion must be that Japan will carry on the war in China until the power of Marshal j Chiang Kai-shek's Government, or of any other

regime that may be established, has been completely and finally destroyed. That this objective is well within Japan's reach can hardly be doubted. In spite of Chiang Kai-shek's optimistic assurances that his campaign is going " according to plan" and that Japan is being lured into a war which must ultimately exhaust her resources, it seems clear that Japan's mechanised armies are meeting with progressively less resistance and that Chiang Kaishek's shortage of war material and funds is likely to disintegrate his government long before the strain on Japan's resources becomes acute. In any case, most of what has been written lately about the prospects of financial collapse in Japan is mere wishing. Nations ruled by dictatorships do not suffer financial collapses, least of all in time of war. It may well be that the strain imposed on Japan's economy by the war in China will involve her later in acute internal troubles and even in revolution; but that will not happen until the war in China has been brought to a successful conclusion." Only two things could have deterred Japan from the course she has now chosen. One was the threat of foreign intervention; and the Panay affair has shown just how little Japan has to fear from either the United States or Great Britain. The other was a rational estimate of the consequences of a prolonged war. Gratification over the victories of Japanese armies must necessarily be tempered by the thought that these victories are crippling the buying power of Japan's best and most promising market. Moreover, the overthrow of the present Government of China means that the whole responsibility for the economic development of China rests with Japan. And the experience of Manchukuo has not been encouraging. Foreign capital will be necessary, yet the tactics of the Japanese army leaders seem calculated to show foreign capitalists that China is a bad investment.

The Loss of the Samoan Clipper The news of the loss of the Samoan Clipper and the deaths of all the members of the crew will be received with profound regret in New Zealand. The competence and sureness with which Captain Musick and his colleagues pioneered the air route from Honolulu to Auckland has probably done more to impress New Zealanders with the possibilities of aviation than all of the many stunt flights undertaken in the last few years. Captain Musick was not among those pilots whose willingness to take risks and attempt meaningless records has brought them an ephemeral fame. His business was not to take risks but to avoid them, not to get into the newspapers but to keep out of them. If, in the last two years, he began to attract public attention, it was by sheer weight of achievement. No man has rendered greater services to civil aviation. He did the reconnaissance work for all the principal American and trans-Pacific services, and did it without the loss of a single life or a single aeroplane. Against the kind of disaster that finally overtook him no amount of technical skill and caution can give complete protection. No mechanical device can be made perfect and consequently in no form of rapid transport can the risk to human life be wholly eliminated. Captain Musick's record of more than 1,000,000 miles in the air without a serious accident was at any rate proof that flying can be as safe as travelling by train or motorcar. Whether the loss of the Samoan Clipper means any interference with plans for the establishment of a regular service between San Francisco and Auckland is not yet certain. It is encouraging to hear from Mr Harold Gatty, however, that the disaster < does not indicate- that the difficulties of this particular route are greater than had been supposed.