EARTHQUAKES AND THE WEATHER

Press, Volume LXX, Issue 21117, 19 March 1934, Page 9

EARTHQUAKES AND THE WEATHER

■'.« ;ii\ miOR OT THE tRF-.^S. Sir.-—OfTicial opinion :ccm> to bo mostly against any connexion between earthquakes and the weather, and as for there being any direct causative connexion between them I am inclined to agree. But as a correspondent pointed out, there may be •I decoer and more* subtle connexion. S"ccr'a'io:i on this point will of iYiu'-o be rinermmed by theonon on •in- ultimate cause? of both these phenomena. As science is as ignorant of the cause of earthquakes as it is of the fundamental cau<w of weather

postulate or even admit the possibility of a connexion between the two Although: some connexion is fair!> obvious at times, some scientific men seem to be inclined to take the easiest but irrational course of denying the existence of that which they cannot, in the light .or twilight?) of thenown theories, satisfactorily explain The theory that these thimts nwj connected as the results of a tht factor docs not gain any cryde •.cc -cicntiiic circles, because it is bejonc ho horizon of orthodox scientific to see in natural phenomena aiivthih't more than the obvious cr npparcntlv obvious. I-or instance, crumpling or shifting of strata often accompanies an earthquake, and .o. because the two things happen to..other the obvious explanation is that one causes the other; namely hat the earthquake is caused by the shiK.g of strata. So far as lam aware ■scientific oninion on this point i ests on two thing* only. First, it is the obvious solution; second, according to current theories, no other explanation is possibh-. Obvious solutions however, are not always reliable. Ihmgs arc sometimes not what thev seem, and theories are apt to be mconeci or insufficient- , , ~ <\s ;i natural result of the then y that shifting of strata causes earthquakes, it is held that when the stre-Ts in the earth's crust have been co relieved no further disturbance need be expected for «™e cm^ dermic time, as it is imagined that he strain --raduallv increases througn Me years until it reaches breaking pom.. Relying on this hypothesis, a leading authority on the subject assured u, afier the Hawkc's Bay shock that no further disturbance need be expected for a considerable period. l.nfortunately for the prestige of the said thenrv we have had two severe shocks since'then, and a number of smallci ones as well. . ~ This same authority sta.ed—and u ic a favourite statement m scientific circle:—that earthquakes cannot be predicted. The confidence with which this statement is made is rather interestme,: for if one searches for the basis of'it. one finds that there is none other than the fact that science cannot do it. therefore it cannot be cone: to nut it mildlv. a rather debatable and indefensible' position: Another favourite scientific occupation is to I a 1.of the curious ideas that exist on ne cause of earthquakes and also of the weather Some curious ideas there mav certainly be. but in view oi Ine insecurity and very unsatisiacloi y nature of scientific theories on tnet-e matters and the fragmentary state or the general knowledge of them science is hardlv in a position to talk overmuch about -curious ideas. If I were malting a list of curious ii.eas on these subjects, starting with the most curious I would put some of the 'cientific theories near the lop. I: is not the stale of knowledge that counts: ignorance is no crime. What really matters is to have willingness to receive and consider new or different ideas. This attitude has been, ?nd still is, in some quarters conspicuous bv its absence in the scientific world-Yours, ctr.. c:yCLONE March 17, l<K-i.