THE WORLD'S WHEAT.

Press, Volume LX, Issue 18265, 26 December 1924, Page 14

THE WORLD'S WHEAT.

SUPPLIES AND REQUIREMENTS

The October crop Toport of the International Institute. Homo, provides authoritative information on the subject of the world's wheat supplies and requirement?. Exportable Surplus. The quantity of wheat _ which, in theory, was exportable from the five chief exporting countries at the beginning of August, may be estimated at 122J- million centals from Canada, 14S million from the United States, 23j million from India. - _'-"i million from Argentina, and 7 million centals from Australia, thus aggregating about 32G million cental*.

Exportable surpluses probably existed at August .Ist. If'lM, in other countries, particularly in Balkan lands, in Hungary, Manchuria. Chile, ami Uruguuy. No basis for estimating the quantities available in these countries is discoverable, so that, only a rough estimate is possible, which would place the aggregate figure of exportable stocks in these countries at 18 million centals on August Ist, ]l>24. Russia exported some millions of centals of wheat last year, but can scarcely be' expected t.o do much this season in view of the deficient crops in that country. To sum up, the quantity available for export, at August Ist may be taken at about 344 million centals. At the beginning of .1925 this quantity will be reinforced by the exportable surpluses from the new crops of Argentina and Australia. According to the most recent advices, prospects are satisfactory in both these countries, so that, taking into account the slightly increased areas sown in each of them, it may be expected that their aggregate yield will not fall below that reaped last year, which amounted to about 220 million centals. Inasmuch as their aggregate consumption is about 70 million centals, it may be hoped that the quantity of wheat harvested in Argentina and Australia will allow of an exportable surplus of 150 million centals.

If this new supply of 150 million centals is added to tlie 344 million centals which were available at August Ist, 1924, an aggregate exportable surplus of 494 million centals' is reached, available during the period between August Ist, 1924, and July 31st, 1925. The quantity available for export during tlio current season appears to bo less than that during 1923-24 by fully 75 million centals, and is only slightly larger than the actual exports of that year. On the other hand, the quantity is about equal to the exportable surplus of 1922-23, and is larger, by 65 million centals than that actually exported in the last-mentioned season. Requirements of Importing Countries. Any estimate of tlie pTobable requirements of the importing countries has even more elements of uncertainty than are involved in ascertaining the surplus available in exporting countries.

A comparison of yields and importations during the twelve months subsequent to the harvests, shows that in tho seasons 1921-22, 1922-23, and 1923-24 (omitting data of stocks at the opening and close of each season) the apparent consumption of the chief importing countries was subject to considerable fluctuation varying from 881 million eontals in 1921-22 to 793 million in 1922-23, and to 927 million in 1923-24. Although the yield in these countries' in 1922 fell short by about 100 million centals of that in 1921, their importa tions during the season 1922-23 hardly exceeded those of the corresponding period in 1921-22. Per contra, with a yield in 1923 of about 90 million centals greater than in 1922, imports during the season 1923-24 reached a quantity of about SQ, million centals more than that of the same space of time in 1922-23.

Such fluctuations may be partly explained by the fact that the actual consumption has a tendency to increaso in plentiful seasons, and to decline when harvests are scanty. "With special regard to the imports during the season 1923-24, it must be especially noted that the Far East absorbed unusual quantities, and Japan, after the earthquake, was a very large importer.

Summary of the Position. On the one hand the quantities available for export during the season 19242", estimated at about 494 million centals, and on the other hand the probable requirements of importing countries during the same period, are placed in juxtaposition. These requirements cannot bo precisely defined, but with the experience of the past seasons and consideration of the points already mentioned, they may fairly be stated at 455 million centals. The outcome is that the available supply is in close correspondence with the requirements, and allows only a narrow margin, a result differing greatly from those in •recent seasons. In fact, although the situation of the wheat supply need not give rise to anxiety, it must be admitted that it is far from being so favourable as in late years, when the available supply largely exceeded the probable requirements. It might be as well to add that, with the rise in prices, consumption may fall short of the forecasted figures, and in that case some stocks of old wheat will remain on hand at the close of the current season. It must, however, bo remembered that estimates of yield are still only preliminary, and may have to bo reduced later, while it has to be emphasised that- the new crops of the southern hemisphere may afford results less favourable than those forecasted at present. If this should happen, there might be danger of absence of equilibrium between the supplies of wheat and the normal requirements.