CHINA.
With reference to the tea trade the " North China Daily News," of June 22, reports : — The uncertain basis on which the general expectation of a material improvement in the value of tea at home was founded, has already been brought to the notice of our readers. We would merely add the significant fact that the short yield of hat year's crop, by which the stock in all England on the 31st March last was reduced from 121,000,0001bs at tbe corresponding date in the previous year, to 106,000,000108, had no appreciable effect on prices. The fact, however, that this reduced stock was still slightly in excess of-that held at the same period in 1864, accounts for the inactivity ruling, and clearly shows how over-sanguine were the views entertained of a buoyant market resulting from this cause. It must not be forgotten that this diminution is likely to b9 fully counteracted by the unusually rapid shipments made from Foochow at the commencement of the present season. Wo do not hesitate to put the probable stock in London on *he 30th September, 1866, at 75,000 OOOlbs, being only 7,000,0001bs short of that held in 1865. These figures are based on an estimated total delivery for the season of 125,000,0001b5, and we think that, allowing for the probable cessation of the export to America, resulting both from the heavy direct shipments thither from this country, and from the acknowledged unsatisfactory financial relations now existing between the United States and Great Britain, this estimate will be found a fair one. Should these views be correct, there is, having regard to the altered notions on stock now held at home, no probability whatever that prices will exceed the \ rates paid in 1864 with a September stock of 86,000,0001bs ; unless, possibly, a few choice chops sell at fancy prices for export. That this season's crop is one of the largest that has been gathered in China for some years past, is now well known. A general increase in the production over last year of twenty per cent, may, we think, be safely calculated on, and should the whole of this be packed for foreign consumption, the total supply in China, black and green, for this season, would be not less than 175,000,000 lbs. The unusually severe pressure for money existing among the teamen at the present moment, is an element, however, that must be carefully weighed in predicting the future course of the market. Its action is likely to be twofold, and the ultimate effect will depend on the foreign buyer. On the one hand, the want of funds may lead to a reduced production of third crop teas, and a firmer market thus result; while on the other, the pressure to realise, that must increase as the season advances, will compel holders to accept terms, which in ordinary years they would unite to reject. Should the latter result take place, and anticipating the probable absence henceforth of any wild competition among shippers, we entertain no doubt of its doing so, the reestablishment of aD entirely new range of prices, based on the quotations of former years, when the outside price for fine Oopacks was 2s 2d per lb, is a reasonable inference. s
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Press, Volume X, Issue 1197, 7 September 1866, Page 2
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538CHINA. Press, Volume X, Issue 1197, 7 September 1866, Page 2
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