THE NEXT WORLD WAR

Ashburton Guardian, Volume 58, Issue 300, 30 September 1938, Page 2

THE NEXT WORLD WAR

OIL SUPPLY THE KEY. The next world war will be fought Avith oil, Avrites P. J. Philip from Paris to the “NeAV York Times.” The allied countries in the war Avhich have the most oil Avill have an overwhelming advantage on their side. If they can hold out against the assaults of the first months, the lack of fuel oil will cost their adversaries the Avar. Napoleon’s armies moved on their stomachs; the modern motorised armies move on gasoline. No navy can move Avithout oil. Submarines, Avhich will be even more destructive in the next Avar than in the last, require the finest quality of oil. Aeroplanes must have motor and fuel oil that is also 100 per cent pure. Shortage of oil Avill, then, he more disastrous than shortage of munitions. The last barrel of oil of a beleagured army Avill be as dramatic as the last cartridge. With the exception of the nationalised Mexican oil the biggest supplies of oil in the Avorld are OAvned or controlled by the United States and Great Britain. They hold the key to Avar or peace, except for the development of synthetic oil. In this Germany took the lead soon after the end of the World YVar. To-day, under pressure of autarchy, Germany is supplying itself from coal—mostly IoAV-grade coal and ligntie—a million tons of motor fuel a year. But, in the event of Avar, that is only a fraction of the oil that Germany Avill need for its armies. The French General Staff has figured out that the oil needs—motor fuel and lubricating oil of modern armies, navies, and air fleets is so great that, in the event of Avar the' demand of Europe for Avar purposes only 'would be 70,000,000 tons, nearly three times Europe’s entire peace-time needs.

Great Britain, Avhich consumes 11,000,000 tons of oil annually at the present time, would need for its army, navy, and air force 27,000,000 tons, the present consumption of all Europe, counting out Russia. France, Avhich uses 5,000,000 tons, avouUl need 15,000,000, and Germany’s military demands even Avith its present reduced fleet and only partially motorised army, Avonkl jump to 12,000,000 tons from its present national consumption of 4,000,000. If the United States and Japan Avere to enter the Avar, the World War needs would be doubled and the combined belligerent Avar consumption would reach 140,000,000 tons a year. The cost of this, the major part of the Avorld’s oil production, would build Avar debts that Avould sink those of the World War into insignificance.

France, which has not gone in for the production of either natural or synthetic oil, would be dependent upon imports from the United States or Mexico, yven for its fleet, unless the Mediterranean remained open, allowing easy access to the pipe lines from Persia, which is hardly likely. In the present line-up of European alliances, however, Great Britain and France, being on the same side, ti is figured, could keep the Atlantic Ocean routes open.