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demonstrate the great increase that has occurred. The annual average of births for the three years 1931 to 1933 was 28,000, but for the three years 1946 to 1948 the average was 49,000. The first wave of these increases reached the infant departments from 1944 onwards. In 1944 the total enrolment figure in infant departments stood at 70,500. It increased by 4,000 in 1945, and by 6,000 in each of the two following years. Because of the temporary fall in births in 1942 and 1943, the enrolment figure declined by 3,000 to just over 84,000 in 1948, and remained at that level in 1949. In 1950 it rose by approximately 3,000, and the 1951 increase will be double that figure. The rise will continue until 1955, by which time the total infant department enrolment figure will be 113,000. After that it will, for a time at least, probably decline slowly, following the expected fall in the yearly number of births. The actual infant enrolment figures for the years 1944 to 1949, and the estimated figures for the years 1950 to 1959 are shown in this table. Table I—Enrolment in Primer Classes (Public, Maori, and Private Schools) 1944 .. .. .. 70,500 1950 .. .. .. 87,000 1945 .. .. .. 74,500 1951 .. .. .. 94,000 1946 .. .. .. 81,000 1953 .. .. .. 111,000 1947 .. .. .. 87,300 1955 .. .. .. 113,000 1948 .. .. .. 84,200 1957 .. .. .. 108,000 1949 .. .. .. 84,400 I 1959 .. .. .. 104,000 As the infants pass on to the standards the cumulative effect of the increases in births on the primary-school rolls becomes more and more apparent. It is anticipated that a peak enrolment in primary schools, including infant classes, standards, and Forms I and 11, will be reached in 1959-60. If the expected decline in births (which has been forecast for the years 1950 to 1955) should not occur, the peak enrolment will exceed the estimated 393,000. Conversely, if the number of births declines more steeply than has been here assumed, the peak enrolment will be proportionately less. The waves of increased births reach the post-primary schools about seven to nine years after their first impact on the primary schools. What increase in post-primary rolls there was between 1945 and 1950 was due to an increased proportion of pupils staying at school beyond the age of fifteen. The enrolment will increase rapidly after 1950, and the rate of increase will gain momentum in the ensuing ten years. But the peak enrolment will not be reached by 1960. Post-primary school rolls will, if they follow the population growth of the thirteen to eighteen year age-group, continue to rise after 1960. It is estimated that the increase from 1960 to 1961 will be 6,000 pupils in the public post-primary, and. over 1,000 in the private post-primary schools. From 1961 to 1962 a further increase of 3,500 in public post-primary and 1,000 in private postprimary schools is estimated. This represents an increase of 13 per cent, in two years alone. Finally, it will be after 1960 that the University colleges and other institutions of higher education will have to be ready for an increased, population of young people between eighteen and twenty-five years of age. Since this development will take place after the ten-year period, 1950 to 1960, to which this paper refers, and because it may be influenced by other than the demographic factors here considered, it ie sufficient merely to draw attention to the bearing upon University enrolment of the increased juvenile population. IMPLICATIONS OF THE INCREASING SCHOOL POPULATION The outstanding fact that emerges from this survey is that the school population will increase by more than 140,000 in the ten-year period after 1949. The full import of this will be seen when it is realized that this number is over a third as large a gain as the total school population, primary and post-primary, in the whole of the South Island jn 1949 (105,000). ]f the public schools continue to cater for 87 per cent, of the pupils,

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