The Waikato Times MONDAY, FEBRUARY 19, 1940 NEW ZEALAND'S EXPORT TRADE

Waikato Times, Volume 126, Issue 21042, 19 February 1940, Page 6

The Waikato Times MONDAY, FEBRUARY 19, 1940 NEW ZEALAND'S EXPORT TRADE

In the quarterly bulletin of the Department of Industries and Commerce appears a graph tracing the progress of the export of New Zealand’s chief products, with illuminating comment by Mr L. J. Schmidt, secretary of the department. So extraordinarily rapid and consistent has been the growth of the dairy produce, meat and wool industries that it is difficult from study of the graph to conclude that the limit has been reached and that the curve of the graph should now flatten out. In all the years since the export trade of the Dominion began the figures have climbed, in spite of all the economic and political vicissitudes experienced. Even in the years of the great economic depression in the past decade, export production rose more quickly than ever, with frozen and chilled meat leading the way in rate of increase.

Dairy produce has received its first serious check in the past two or three years, but with exceptionally favourable climatic conditions it seems the present season may assist in repairing the deficiency. After this temporary halt, will production resume its upward trend, or are the productive resources of the Dominion reaching their limit and the world’s markets becoming satiated? Of the first condition it may be said that the limit of production has not by any means been reached. Closer settlement, improved farming methods and the more liberal and intelligent use of fertilisers are all capable of lifting production far beyond its present level. The limit will not be reached until every inch of the country is producing to full capacity.

The world’s markets are, unfortunately, a far less definite quantity. For the duration of the war there should be a market for all that can be produced, providing the Allies can maintain control of the sea routes and provide sufficient shipping. Beyond the war the position is hazy but by no means without hope. If a new order of durable peace is established it must include the demolition of many of the trade barriers that exist today, and a much freer exchange of the world’s consumable commodities. If all peoples were to enjoy all the goods they need the markets could be expanded enormously. Only the conditions that have led to the present war have cluttered the markets with restrictions and the inability to purchase from the stores of abundant production.

Another factor that may have an important bearing on the future volume of New Zealand’s export production is political policy as it affects the economic system. Efforts are being made to industrialise the Dominion to a much greater extent. If that policy succeeds, New Zealand imports may be expected to decline, and thus the exchange of goods with other countries will be affected. Further, if the policy is to reverse the bias in favour of primary production there will be 'ess inducement to go on the land and increase production. Industrialisation can be expected to increase the population and therefore the home market, but it cannot be expected to increase the export trade and therefore the volume of exchange. New Zealand cannot in the measurable future find markets overseas for manufactured goods. All these factors will have an influence on the curve of the graph that will illustrate New Zealand’s export trade in the years that are to come.