THE PROCESS OF ATTRITION

Waikato Times, Volume 88, Issue 13432, 10 March 1917, Page 4 (Supplement)

THE PROCESS OF ATTRITION

Eighteen and a half million casualties ri which deaths make up nearly one-t|uni-tei', is the toll already levied on the lighting men of all the belligerent nations by twenty six months (if war. This gives a monthly average of more than 711.000 casualties—killed, wounded, prisoners', and missing—or more than 165.000 a week. These appalling figures arc published by Mr Frank rl. Siiiionds. perhafis the bestknown authority in the United Stales on the various phases of the European War. and are the result of his examination and analysis of all the available statistics from both belligerent and neutral sources. It the war remains a contest of attrition, concludes .Mr Simonds, it will continue to devour human life at this iat;> for another two years, but victory at the. last must be with the Entente Allies because their total available man-power is two and a half times as great as that of the Central Powers. /Point is given to these figures and this prediction by the tact that while on the Western front the Allies p::sh forward on the Sommc and the French un'dei General Xivelle recover with a sweep the offensive at Verdun, on the F.astern front the Bulgars, Teutons, and Tn.ks, un cler General Mackensen rapture Fonstanza, Roumanians Black Sea port, take the vitally important bridgehead at Omavoda, and drive forward victoriously through the Dobrudja. The strength (if the double offensive against Roumania—Falkenhayn driving from Transylvania and Mackensen from Bulgaria—refutes the claims of the Allies that Germany has already exhausted her reserves of man-power, remarks the New York "Tribune," which foresees "a new period of depression among the Allied nations." but goes on to say: "If their alliance can endure this new reverse and this very illuminating demonstration that the way to ultimate victory must be long and costly, the German success at Constanza, the disaster to Rou mania, will have no real consequences. Rut Germany will use her utmost effort to make this last success the basis for a settlement which shall not be unfavourable to her or too costly to her foes. She has her excuse for proposing 'victorious peace' again. She will use it." Returning to .Mr Simonds's estimates of the war's cost in- human life—which also aopeav in "The Tribune"—we find him allotting 10.000,000 of the total casualties to France. Russia Great Britain, and

Italy. 8.000,000 to Germany and Austria. arid dividing the remaining 500,000 among the smaller nations Belgium, Serbia, 'Montenegro, Roumania, on one side, and Bulgaria and Turkey on the other. Here is his table of casualties for the six Great Powers involved: ENTENTE POWERS. France 2.500,000 Russia 5,750,000 Great Britain ... 1.400,000 t Italy 350,000 10,000,000 CENTRAL POWERS. Germany 4,000,000 Austria 4,000,000

8,000,000 buither examining this grand total of casualties. Air Simonds finds that the per centage <>i deaths is about twenty tour. That is to say. the number of men killed in the war to date is 4.500,000. -In a word, the war that broke out over Serbia has already killed a number nf men equal to the whole population of the little Balkan State." Discussing the nu-aniivg of the figures he has compiled. Mr Simonds says: "At the moment when thp war broke out the four great Powers united against Germany and Austria had a European population of a round 300.000.000. The combined population of Austria and Germany was 120,000,000. Now. there is

no question more keenly debated than that of the proportion of a "total national population which can be reckoned as capable of bearing arms. It may be 10 per cent., it may be 12, but it will be the same for all nations, approximately. VVe may say, then, that at the outset of the war the Allies had available a man-power of 30,000.000, the Central Powers, a man-power of 12.000,000. If the Allies have now suffered casualties amounting to 10.000,003. one-third of their whole force has been temporarily or permanently incapacitated. But if the Central Powers have suffered casualties amounting to 8,000,000, two-thirds cf their manpower has been temporarily or permanently incapacitated. "Now, in the case of the German official figures we saw that the total, of permanent casualties (killed, prisoners, and badly wounded), with relation to total casualties, was 50 per cent. Accepting this ratio we may say that' the permanent loss of the Allies has been 5.C00.000 and of the Central Powers 4,000.000. In other words, the Allies have permanently lost one-sixth of their man-power, the Central Powers, one-third. And this ratio will remain constant, whether the various nations are able to put 10 per cent. or 12 per cent, of their population into : the field.

''Here is the foundation of all that has | been said about attrition since the war began. In a war of exhaustion the weaker force mus t ultimately lose if the war continues steadily a trial of endurance. In the end, if the Germans continue to lose at the rate of a third of their man-power in the time in which the Allies are losing one-sixth, the Germans and their allies must succumb. And in the first twenty-six months of the world-war this has been approximately the ratio of losses in the two camps." Pointing out that it "requires not much less than 5,000,000 men to hold the present lines of the Central Powers, eliminating the Bulgars and the Turks," Mr Simonds goes on to say: "We do know that the population of the Allied nations is two and a half times that of the Central Powers. We do know that their losses have been, if actually greater than the German and Austrian, relatively much smaller, regard being had for their total manpower, and this means they are to have reserves to call upon when the reserves of the Central Powers have been exhausted. . .

"Now, if the Central Powers have lost only 4,000,000 out of 12,000,000-that is, permanently lost them—in the first twen-ty-six months of the war, they may be able to go on for something less than two years more, losing at the same rate, before they will be unable to put 5,000,000 in the field. They will go longer if their losses are not as great, but they will go a shorter time if, as seems to be* the case

which is the Central A Uiance, first, and that it will come while the opposing alii ance has still abundant supply of men to keep its armies at th"-maximum of necessary strength. Conceivably the Oer mans may win the war. possibly the Allies may win the ivhi : but if it goes on as ii is now going, ii it turns on battle losses, if it lcinains a contest of attrition, the ul timate outcome i.- patent.' 1 That the Allies share this belief in then ultimate but not immediate victory is evidenced by the following statement made on October 25. by General Sir Henry Rawlinsnn, General Jlaig's right-hand man in the Somine offensive: "Our army has not yet reached the zenith of its power, nor will it have done so until next spring, or possibly next summer. [ think, we have reached the top of the hill, but there is an undulatingtableland to cross before we really get on to the down-grade portion beyond. This may I e steep, it may bo quite a gentle slope. But it will be down-hill work, and comparatively easy." To supplement this we have Mr S. S.

M<( lur.'s testimony that when he was in France a few weeks ago some, of the French troops were being demobilised and sent home. And a Stockholm dispatch to the New York "Times" quotes "a distinguished neutral resident in Berlin" as saying: "It may be taken as quite definite that the German authorities realise that the war is lost."