The Wanganui Herald (Published Daily.) WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 27, 1915. THE BALKANS.

Wanganui Herald, Volume L, Issue 14746, 27 October 1915, Page 4

The Wanganui Herald (Published Daily.) WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 27, 1915. THE BALKANS.

It 18 astonishing to iotc the entire lack of knowledge on the pa-rt of statesmen, diplomatists, and publicists concerning the Balkan situation. A London cable today quotes Lord Cromer as expressing the opinion that Germany s success against Russia induced King Ferdinand to join Germany and King Constantine to ignore the Servian treaty, an opinion quite at variance with the statement made in the Roumanian Parliament yesterday that the Germany treaty with Bulgaria was concluded in August, 1914. One might reasonably expect that reliance could be placed on the writings of men in leading Homo magazines who claim to have expert knowledge. Yet wo find that most ol them are very wide of the mark. Tor instance, first place in the current issue of tho Fortnightly Review is filled by an anonymous article—evidently written besoms person who was supposed to know—dealing with the fall of Warsaw and its sequel. He dismisses tho attitude of the Balkan kingdoms, pins his faith on M. Venizelos, aud suggests that the TurkoBnlgariau agreement relating to the cession of the Dedcagateh-Adrianople railway had como to nothing. Ho also expresses the opinion that a German-Austrian invasion of Servia could not take place until the campaign in Russia was definitely settled in favour of Germany. All wrong. But he points out that at the time cf writing—fully seven weeks ago—it was reported that Germany hod bought all the Roumanian corn—a report which was repeated in recent cable messages—and he urged that Great Britain ought to have bought all the Roumanian corn, and also all the Bulgarian. It seems that Roumanians and Bulgarians attach more value to an immediately profitable sale of their corn than to any promises of future political benefits. But the contributor evidently had no idea that Bulgaria had been deeply committed to the. German cause for months, and that in her pretended negotiations with tho Entente Power she was merely sparring for time. It is also evident that dritish diplomatists were no better informed than British publicists.

Even more glaringly wrong is an artieE ou tho situation in Tho Near East by Mr N. Charles Woods in the Fortnightly. This authority writes:“lt has been constantly asserted or inferred that the Bulgarian Government was about to throw in its lot with Germany. They say that the King of tho Bulgarians and his Ministers are merely the tools of our enemies; that the German loan proves the friendship existing between Berlin and Sofia, and that arrangements have been or are about to be made between Burgaria and Turkey concerning certain sections of tho railway which connects Mustafa Pasha with Dedcagateh. Most of these contentions are false, but where they possess an element of truth *hat element is so greatly exaggerated that it becomes almost valueless in considering the real situation. If they be nothing else, the Bulgarians are a practical people. It is absurd to suppose that a ru)er whose tact, sagacity;

and ambition have always been recognised, should now bo working for purely personal purposes against the interests of his country. The contributor hints that the Entente Powers were on the eve of concluding an agreement with Bulgaria at the time of writing, and that, as a result of the agreement, the Balkan League would be reconstituted; 400,000 Bulgarians would march into Turkey on the side of the Allies: 500,000 Roumanians would march into Transylvania and attack Austria, and 300,000 Greeks would co-operato with Serna in attacking the Teutonic Power ;. The article shows how dangerous it Is to guess. The prediction has been painfully falsified by the events. Sir Alfred Sharpe. K.C.M.8., C.8., is even more grotesquely “out of it" than the two writers already quoted, in the statements that he makes in his article in the Nineteenth Century on “A Definite Policy in the Balkans.” He quotes personal interviews with Radoslavofl, the Prims Minister of Bulgaria, and Pascis, the Prime Minister of Sorvia, and ho quotes authoritative statements by Ycnizelos, the Greek statesman, all tending to show that the Balkan kingdoms were anxious to support the Allies, provided that their internal differences were ad. justed by guarantees given by the Entente Powers. In a postscript to nis article, dated August 24th, 1915, the distinguished contributor writes: “It would appear probable that by the time this article appears the loeg-desired agreement between the Balkan States may bo an accomplished fact. With an Italian force operating in Gallipoli and Asia Minor, a Greek army invading Western Thrace, and a Bulgarian army advancing on Constantinople by way of Adrianople, Turkey’s days will indeed bo numbered.” Sir Alfred Sharpe, K.C.M.G., C.8., will no doubt be one of the loudest of the denunciators of Sir Edward Grey whose failure to plumb the depths of Bulgarian mendacity aud German intrigue has so completely discredited the contributor as a political prophet.