The Wanganui Herald. [PUBLISHED DAILY.] TUESDAY, JUNE 24, 1913. PATCHWORK PEACE.

Wanganui Herald, Volume XLVIII, Issue 14015, 24 June 1913, Page 4

The Wanganui Herald. [PUBLISHED DAILY.] TUESDAY, JUNE 24, 1913. PATCHWORK PEACE.

Ip the wire diplomats who mould the destinies of nations imagine for a moment that they arc bringing peace to the Balkans by seting the Albanian house in •order, a disillusionment awaits them before the world is many years older. Such is the opinion expressed by Mr Alphonso Conrlander, tbo well-known English author and jonrnalht. Writing on what he terms the short-sighted policy of the Powers in the Balkans, he ridicules the idea of peace, which he says will never come in our day. He admits it is a very pretty picture to contemplate, this vision of the peaceful harvest after the blood-red months; Bulgaria stronger and more contented now with its larger territory;' Servia won back to tome of its ancient glory; Greece avenged for the bitter memories of that other struggle with the Turk; and even Montenegro spreading beyond the grey mountains and joined at last to its brother Serbs in the Sanjak. Putting on one side the question of expediency and the adroit manner in which all the Powers have averted a European war, so that Austria might, with a masterstroke of opportunism, dominate the Serbs with her influence, ho tays the fact remains that by this policy the resultant peace is only,'at the best, a poor patchwork affair. He goes on to say; The Powers are sowing the whirlwind ‘Montenegro being forced, to abandon Scutari to the Albanians, it is perfect'y obvious that the JScutari of the future will be a Scutari with the Austrian influence paramount. Austria has sacrificed the Sanjak, but in exchange she has a footing on the southern frontier of Montenegro. Thus, Montenegro is still baulked of her legitimate aspirations for economic expansion. (Whether Montenegro is fit or worthy for economic expansion is a matter for argument; there are many who hold that 'she is innately capable of development; but the -desire of the little nation to grow larger is -there). Austria holds already the port of Cattaro, thus cutting off the shortest route from the sea to the capital. Austria (though nominally it will be the new autonomous Albania) is destined: to hold Scutari, the city which could be an important commercial centre for Montenegro, linking up lake and river and road. - When the wounds of the war are healed, and only the scars remain, what, he asks, will happen? Is it possible that lasting peace caff be secured on a basis that gives nothing to the Mountain? Is it possible that Servia- and Bulgaria and Greece—and the greater Power, Russia, that looms, like a shadow behind them all —will bo content to sec Austria obtaining a foothold further east? In the game that is being played now, Austria has staked high. How much of her policy was bluff and how much was sincere is a ma tter forthose who know her best to say, but she challenged war with Russia rather than allow Scutari to fall into the hands of the Montenegrins. Mr Conrlander expresses the opinion that the challenge will be taken up, not to-day or to-morrow—for the “Powers are .in accord”—but in about five years! time. For the present Austria has won, Russia has won, Germany has won, and so have France and Great Britain. Everyone,, in fact, has won except Montenegro. Austria has gained her point, Russia has managed to wriggle out of a difficult situation, and Great Britain, happy to avoid war, has lent her flag to this demonstration. The days when Great Britain could impose her will on Europe are, in the writer’s opinion, past, and he suggests that she must go carefully and discreetly now, in a conciliatory mood, and must avoid war, even though the talk of war might be mere threats never intended to be put into action. Armageddon is postponed. But the Balkan question still lives. Autonomous Albania is to be reckoned with now, complicated with Austrian “protection.” Nobody seems to know quite how autonomous Albania will work out. The tribal differences, the chaos of Serb and Mussulman and Catholic, the violent feuds of race and religion are forgotten by those enthusiasts who rejoice in the propect of Albania having won. through to independence at last. The general attitude seems to be: “The poor Albanians—-centuries have come and gone and under the juggernaut of nations they have always remained a nation—lot us give them a show at. last.” So, in this experimental frame of mind, rightly or wrongly, Scutari is destined for Albania, and,: indeed, it is as vital a possession for ihem as it is for the Montenegrins. As for the ethnographical, geographical, and historical arguments for its ownership, the balance seems to hang fairly level between its rival claimants. Montenegro withdraws resentfully, with, so to speak, the stock phrase of the melodramatic villain, “Never mind—a time will come.”

Such is the new spirit which. Mr Courlander has detected. A timo will come. Not to-day or to-morrow, but five years hence, when Scrvia has recovered from the blows of warfare, and the blood ties are closer drawn, with the narrow neck of the Saujak no longer a division, . but a link between the " two Serb' nations;’ Then it will ha tha day of the Serbs‘ against the other enemy—Austria; it .will .be a war-

for tlie inclusion of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Serb Empire, and the freedom of. their.-fellows in Dalmatia, and Scutari will be avenged by Montenegro. “Trouble ,in the Balkans! The Powers have laid a nice train of gunpowder that will fire it all again in a few year’s time. They have sown the whirlwind.”