RUSSIA'S ACTIVITY.

Wanganui Herald, Volume XXXIV, Issue 9939, 16 January 1900, Page 1

RUSSIA'S ACTIVITY.

WHAT THE OCCUPATION OF HEARA MEANS. (Exchange.) A recent writer, speaking upon the reported occupation of Heart by Huseia, says that Great Britain may find herself face to face with a situation more serious than any she has encountered since 1814. The report aa to the Russian advance only bears out rumours that came from Paris and St. Petersburg several days ago. It is difficult, according to many authorities, to imagine any other course that Great Britain can take, if the Russians are really in Afghanistan, than to declare war against the Empire of the Czar. Twice at least has> Britain, solemnly promised Abdurrahman to protect his country from invasion. In return foi this he haa discouraged the Muscovite diplomatists, and has done all in his power to subduo the fierce tribes which continually threaten the northern border* of Hindustan. It has often been Baid that the Ameer has broken faith, but it las never been proved, and it is generally bdievod that the frequent troubles between Great Britain and the hill tribes were entirely unprovoked by the Ameer or his agents. For one reason an attempt by Russia; to take advantage of the war against tho Boers in the inTOfflon of India is unlikely at the present time. Many authorities say that an invasion of Hindustan through Afghanistan could only be possible during two, or at the most three, mouths of theypar. It is also certain that an advance thiough Cashmere, which for several reasons would present the least difficulties, could only be managed, in July or August. li, however, Russia is only dcsiious Of taking Kabul at present, the trocps could come by way ot Herat, 'Afterwards, unless they were beaten in the interim, they could advance to the Kuram river, wliich could be reached during eight months of the year, or by the Gomul Pass toward Dcra Ismail Khan and the South. Some English politicians, arguing apparently on insufficient information, have declared that it would not he bad policy to let the Russians enter Afghanistan as by doing so they would incur tho hatred of the Ameer's people, ■who would do all in their -power— which is a good deal — to resist the jnyadurs. But Sir Eobert Sandoinan, than whom 310 higher authority oa' tho whole question of the Indian frontier has lived, de- ] clared that it was a great mistake to suppose that tho occupation of a part of Afghanistan by Eussia would make the mass of the Afghans her foes. The Afglianf, Sir Robert 6aid, respected power abovo anything else, and would be f. gieat deal more likely to turn against the British for not defending 1 them against tho Russians than anything else, and, one« they realised that Hindustan was to bo invaded, would in all probability throw in their lot with the Russians, in the hopo of plunder. That their ow;i country -vould inevitably be annexed if Russi.v obtained India is a pcint of practical ttatenmnship that the Afghans are not civilised enough to realise. Sir Charles Dilkc, who has made a life-long study of Great Britain's means of defence, says in his Problems of Great Britain: "Those who best know Afghanistan are of opinion that invasion of India by Russia is possible, and would ■in the event of war certainly be undertaken, provided that Russian influence VWO predominant in Kabul." The same

writer emphusisea the agreement on Great Britain's part to protect Afghanistan against invasion, saying- "Ho (the 4noer) uudeistands us to have pronustJ him to see that the Pussians do not tako it (his country), nnd he undoubtedly token ps that wo bhould resist, with the whole force of tho Empire, and in all parts of the world, any attempt to pnss tho line of pillars wliich the Joint Commission has set up. He is persuaded that by himself, and without our guarantee, he could not hopo to keep tho Russians out of Herat or Balkh. The position, although our policy has been successful up td tho present tune, in oiu> necessarily full of anxiety."