Wairarapa Daily Times [Established Third of a Century.] TUESDAY, AUGUST 1, 1911. OPPOSITION PROSPECTS.

Wairarapa Daily Times, Volume LXIV, Issue 11106, 1 August 1911, Page 4

Wairarapa Daily Times [Established Third of a Century.] TUESDAY, AUGUST 1, 1911. OPPOSITION PROSPECTS.

At the present time, the members of His Majesty's Opposition in the New Zealand Parliament are more hopeful of winning their way into power at the next election than lias been the case at any period since '' the continuous ministry" took over the affairs of this country. And that this opinion is very generally hold by the electors themselves is apparent to anyone travelling through the Dominion at the present time. It is not easy to say whether this change of sontiment is duo to any one canse, or to a variotybf causes: but.the fact remains that the great majority of people of all classes appear to consider that the time is ripe for a change of government, and the claims of Mr Massey's party to office arc now receiving consideration far more favourable to their chances of success than was the case six or twelve months ago. Tho obvious note of sincerity in some of the recent speeches by members ot the Opposition, and their advocacy of a policy that is clear, and well-defined, and that promises to aid progress and conservo clean administration in those directions* in which the present adniiilistrjation so lamentably ami notoriously fails, seem to have suddenly convinced many thousands of people that Mr Massey and his henchmen aro capable of something more than mere destructive criticism. And it would bo too, to overestimate the influence Mr Massey himself has exerted in bringing about, in the past year, what we are pleased to consider is a pronounced change of public opinion in favour of the Opposition. Mr Massey has, year after year, fought stubbornly in tlio interests of reform, praising that which was good, condemning in unmistakeable terms that which lie thought was bad, until poo-' pic were inclined to be rather -aweary 1 of it. "If tho administration is cor-' nipt," they said, "it will sooner or later bo exposed and come to an'end. For heaven's sake, let us have an end 'to this cry of Stinking Pish!" But,

f during the past few sessions, Mr Massoy's pessimism has been justified, and, for once, tho prophet -is not without honour in his own country. Disclosure have beoii mado of certain things wliieli do not. redound to the interests ,oi: the party in power, and, although jno pni'Uoulnr one betrays general oorI'upllun, tlio \\h'eet of considering litem iih « wlndo 1 Is (o Hlutke tho'confi(leiieo of Mm people in 1.110 Government, mo that the people are turning \v llli marked I'rlrndlineHH to the man who, I'or yours, struggled along in the him of most <l iMeouraglng odds, ' 'Well, ho'H battled for it: lot's give him a, chanoo to make good," is a remark not Infrequently hoard.

But, in tliinking over tho prospects of the coming election, most people under estimate the tusk sot; tho Opposition when that party is asked to get into power. .There aro eighty members of the House of' Representatives, and tho respective strength of the two parties may thus be shown: — Ministerialists ... H> Opposition . . 25 Independent . . 8 Vacant .. .1 Total .. 80 Ono has no difficulty in computing tho number of Oppositionists; thoy_ represent a solid little party, the views of each member of which are well known. J But it is more difficult to discover tho truo numerical strength of the Ministerialists. We have placed as Independents two Maori members—who may. be expected to support the party in 'power, whatever its policy—and Messrs Wright, Ross, Poole, Myers, Hogg and McLaren. But, of the latter, only one (Mr McLaren) can be confidently regarded as an Independent. Of the others, it is not easy to speak definitely. We would not expect to find Mr Ross in the Opposition camp, and he is certainly not a Labourite, so we might allocate him to the Liberal benches. On the other hand, we would not bo surprised to see Mr Myers come forward as a supporter of a strong party of reform. Messrs Wright, Poole and Hogg give grudging support to the Government, but they would withdraw that immediately if given a chance to join a Parliamentary Labour Party. None of the three is likely to become an Opposition recruit. No one knows what the next no-confidence motion may bring forth, but it appears at present as if the Ministerialists have a potential voting strength of fifty. This'meaus that, in November next, the Opposition must not only retain the seats they have now, but must also capture at least fifteen new seats, and, even with public sentiment turning so strongly against the Government, this will not be easily achieved A circumstance that complicates the issue is tho evident determination of labmr to send straight-out Labour representatives to the next Parliament, who would join with the three or four men now wavering in the present Parliament and form a.; new party. Moderate success, at least, by Oppositionists is assured, and if Labour candidates gain tho victories that are confidently anticipated for them, and a coalition of the Opposition and Labour parties follows, tlio Ward Government will be definitely out of office. Whether such a coalition is possible, or pracicablo, are, of course, questions yet to be considered. I

The bye-election rendered necessary by the death, of Mr T. E. Taylor will take place almost immediately, and, if a Ministerialist is nominated, in addition to the Oppositionist, the Labourite, and tho No-License man, already promised, it should prove intensely interesting, as giving a fair indication of any changes that may have occurred in public opinion "during the past three years.