WEATHER CYCLES.

Wairarapa Daily Times, Volume LXIII, Issue 9980, 4 May 1911, Page 2

WEATHER CYCLES.

The Commonwealth Meteorologist, Mr 11. A. Hunt, iias come to the conclusion that the theory of weather cycles is useless as a basis or forecasting weather on the eastern cosat of Australia. He itas compiled details of the rainfall in Sydney aud the surrounding country during each month of the past 70 years, and on these bis opinion is founded. By means of a graph which lie had constructed, all the monthly totals greater or less than the average rainfall are clearly shown, and Mr Hunt says that a cursory glance at the diagram will convince the most ardent believer in the statistical basis for forecasting the seasons that the method cauuot be applied to the coastal districts of New Soutti Wales. "During the whole period covered by the graph," be said to au interviewer, "them i? barely a siugle instance where one month's rainfall, much less that of a season, coincides with the average. In fact;, it would almost appear as if the line which represents the average were de signed in many cases to avoid the actual totals registered. Those who are wedded to a belief in weather cycles or recurreuce of «easous may also be convtuced that if such exist the period over which our climato history exis undoubtedly too short to establish a cycle of any practical use." The theory that the rain of any season is an indication of what the following seasou will be has been dispelled by the fant that there are as many nstauces of dry following wet seasons as they are of dry or wet seasons following either kind. Some, excessively dry seasons have been preceded and followed immediately by extraordinarily wet ones. The driest year ever known in New Soutti Wale* was 1888. but 188? and 188'J were two of the best years the State has enjoyed. The most protracted drought in the neighbourhood of Sydney lasted from November, 1848, till June, 1850, the rainfall during the 20 months being nearly 45in below the average. The most recent disastrous drought occurred during the 10 months ended Juuc, 11)02, the rainfall being 2Gin below normal. Sonio of the prolonged wet periods have been equally wide of the average The weather prophet iv Australia appears to be confronted by many difficulties.