THIS FARMING BUSINESS

Wanganui Chronicle, Volume 90, Issue 8, 10 January 1946, Page 7

THIS FARMING BUSINESS

PROBLEMS OF TO-DAY AND TO-MORROW A WIDE VIEW IS NOW NECESSARY

BY

HUGH C. JENKINS.

Farming is the business of supplying people with food. It is not a national but an international operation and the mentality required for successful farming cannot be narrow: a wide view is necessary to ensure success. To what extent are those wider problems of farjning appreciated in New Zealand? It may be doubted whether there is sufficient breadth in farming thought, despite all that has been written and said by experts in the various fields of investigation. Successful education is at the bottom of successful farming; where education is inadequate the operations which it directs are likely to be insufficient to attain to success- The problems of farming lie in the future; the fact that success has been attained in the past is no criterion that the same methods will ensure success in the future. What are those problems which confront farming operations in New Zealand to-day?

THE MARKET. The supply of food to human beings being the base objective the first question to be asked in respect to New Zealand farming is: "What populations is the farming industry of this country to be called upon to serve?" Hitherto the only market that has been able and willing to accept New Zealand’s meat, butter and cheese has been the United Kingdom. Wool has had a wider market and Japan has been a major operator to lift wool prices to lucrative levels. The Continental countries of Europe have absorbed some of New Zealand's wool as has also the United States of America. The population of the coastal regions of the China Republic are reputed to have a spending power—in normal times —of some 80,000,000 of Europeans. The cold Continental winters of China make that population a good potential market for woollen clotning when the padded silk garments are finally laid aside. The disturbed state of China, however does not encourage the belief that this potential market will be drawing wool from New Zealand in the very near future. Continental Europe needs wool, but at what price? The demand is there, assuredly; but to what extent can the peoples of Europe pay for the wool they so sorely need? There must inevitably be a time lag between the restoration of their governments and the full time occupation of their people. But when that is over to what extent can these people buy New Zealand wools? It must depend upon their ability to export the goods which they make. If New Zealand is to pursue a policy of self-sufficiency shut-ting-out foreign-made goods, then it must expect that these potential customers will turn to other sources for their requirements of raw wool. Other sources of supply are available to them: New Zealand enjoys no monopoly as does Australia of fine wools. And that which is true of these Continental countries of Europe is equally true of the United Kingdom, but in the second instance it applies also to the meat, butter and cheese whiejj are now being sold in that market. A polic of self containment in New Zealand applied against England will result in the curtailment of the importation of New Zealand’s produce and retaliatory action by the United Kingdom is likely to be much more speedy in the future than it has been in the past. In this, as in other things, the past is no guide to the future. But what of the United States? Will not that vast market absorb more wool in the future than it has done in the past? Why should it? By every logical line of argument there is justification for the expansion of wool importations into the Union, but not more so than in the past. If logical argument lias not succeeded in American politics m the past, despite the injury tq_the 'health of the people of that land through a lack of wool, what assurance is there that logic will be more effective from now on. Unfortunately, none whatever.

THE SALE OF FOODSTUFFS. The sale overseas of foodstuffs by New Zealand is not so bright as lo merit sanguine ideas being entertained. In the first place these foodstuffs have but one overseas market and none other. This reliance on one market is bad business from more than one angle and Mr. J. T. Martin s advocacy lor extending the range of the export market is sound. How to do that is another matter. Where shall that extension of the market be found? In the United States and Canada? In South America? Look closely at each of these markets and see what are the prospects for sales of New Zealand produce? Is the prospect alluring? Hardly! The stern fact remains that the United Kingdom is going to remain for a long time the sole marKet for the exportable products that are of major importance to New Zealand. Let us examine that market.

UNITED KINGDOM MARKET. The League of Nations Year iluok sets the population ot England, Scotland and Northern Ireland at 47,978,000 in .1939 and Lie latest official estimate at 48,182,000. This population is subject to two operations, oirth and death. Between the years 1911 and 1913 the birth rate per 1000 persons in the United Kingdom was 24.3, but by 193135 it had fallen to 15.5, by 1940 it was as low as 14.6. There has been a rise in later years, but this is the result oi delayed action. The factors which operated to limit, births continue to artect the situation. The death rate during the same years moved from 14.2 to 12.2 and by 1940 it had risen to 14.5, but this latter figure cannot be used lor the purpose oi deduction in the present case. A falling birth rate and a falling death rate mean that the population of the United Kingdom is becoming comprised ot more persons in the higher age groups and fewer in the lower age groups. Here is some information lor the food supplier. He must concentrate upon supplying more older persons and rewer younger persons. This will affect the tastes to be satisfied. Herein lies the reason for, the popularity of lamb and young mutton. What is being done to meet such a situation? Does not this imply that Hie grading of New Zealand meat requires lo be overhauled? But there is another and much more serious side ot this population study. People cannot live forever and if the population gets older then wtdually the decline in the birth rate will be an insignificant factor; the chief concern will then be in the steep increase in tile death rate. The Society of Actuaries a tew years ago estimated that if the present trends continued the United Kingdom would have a population of 12,000,000 by the year 2000. Mr. .). T. Martin is surely right when he declares that New Zealand needs other markets now. ENGLISH FARMING. Accompanying this prospective decline in the population of the United Kingdom there is a revival in English

agriculture. The British farmer is alive to a degree that he has never been before. “One of the most encouraging signs for the future of British agriculture is the fact that so many and such an increasing number of farmers are anxious—indeed eager—to hear all about-new methods, new 1 experiments, and the results of recent research. All over the country farmers have been getting together, talking things over, holding discussion groups, attending Brains Trusts and so forth. The spread of this movement has been so rapid that it has not been easy to find enough good men with time tn spare to go and talk at meetings.” So writes Mr. R. S. Hudson, M.P., in an introduction to a recently published book entitled “Green Pastures," a series of broadcast talks on grass as a crop.

In Ulis same book Sir George Stapleton is reported as saying: "What is post-war farming going to be? Not what can we manage on permanent grass, but what can we., make of it by farming in the true meaning of the word- ... Of the many things this war has proved on the land one has been the colossal power of these socalled sacrosanct pastures in terms of wheat and potatoes—and mark you of leys. I would argue that here is a tremendous fertility which we ought to cash. It is not a question of leys (grass for three, four or five years in a rotation) but of permanent pastures against the ley farming system—of merely taking the gifts of God or adventuring. I fully admit that the ley wants highly skilled management, and of course a decidedly different kind ot management to what the old pasture did. We're not, however, changing the grasses.”

Mr. A. A. Copland in the same book makes the following contribution: “Why New Zealand is able to offer such strong competition to this country (the U.K.) in the production of meat is because we have extensive areas of what we call ’store’ country. These stores are available from the ’lower cost’ country to the down countryman with his pastures which have been made productive through ploughing and resowing. “STORE" COUNTRY.

What is happening to the “store" country of which Mr. Copland speaks as being of such advantage to New Zealand? Much of it has gone out of pioductian for want of men to keep it in order. Much of it again has not been well grazed and by that I mean scientifically grazed. There is a considerable portion of the “store" country which ;s or will be scheduled to go back to second growth and eventually it is hoped to bush; much will need to be afforested for the sake of protecting the lower country. But there is much country which could be grazed by the right kind of sheep and cattle. Mr. S. S. Timbs’ advocacy of the Kerry Hillsjsheep for rough high country and the Galloway cattle for the same regions would not cut across the established breeds in the country, but it would add to the supply of stores which the down countryman can handle on his high-grade pastures. This hill country lamb and mutton is also in line with the requirements of that older population which will present itself to be fed in England in the very near future. THE POLITICAL FACTOR.

Farming then, among its other problems, must face a declining consumption in England, first because of the fall in the population ajci second because of the revival of interest in British agriculture. The history of British agriculture is of quickened concern during a war ana leaving it to shift for itself as soon as peace arrives. The recent experience of short commons and monotony of diet has driven into the minds of the English people the desirability ot the State taking a continuing interest in British agriculture. Even before that the Great Depression had connitioned men's minds for such a point-of-view to find lodgment. It would be wiser to assume that New Zealand agriculture will have to be adapted much more strictly in the future tnan it has in the past to the requirements of British farming as well as the needs of the Home consumer, and that as a result restrictions may be placed upon quantitive exports to the United Kingdom. This is a disturbing and a distressing outlook tor farming in New Zealand unless other markets can be developed. How '.an the future be met? It can be met by improving pastures, for every improvement in litis direction is the shortest way to lower costs. It also opens the way to higher production in milk or meat and again at lower cost. If farmers will abandon looking for higher prices and search for lower production costs per unit they will come nearer to meeting the requirements of those other markets which must perforce be discovered. breeding.

Breeding is the second door through which the farmer may pass to the goal of lower production costs. True, milk production per cow may be driven 100 high to the detriment of the animal’s general physique, leading to a breakdown or a short production life. True, too, meat production can be speeded up so to product^good edible beef in two and a-half years or even less, thereby reducing the production period and consequently the cost as well. True, too, mutton may become I lie Cinderella product of New Zealand’s economy, but that only reinforces Mr. Copland's observation concerning New Zealand's advantage -the “store" country. THE FUTURE.

The future of farming is by no means clear. The path seems likely to be a difficult one, but that is not a reason for despairing. It should cause farmers to strive to eliminate from their operations all those adverse factors which it is within thei 1 ’ power to remove? The race will not bo to the weak nor to life weary: in business, as in other things, the Gods help those most who most help themselves.