WHITHER TENDING

Wanganui Chronicle, Volume 80, Issue 263, 5 November 1937, Page 11

WHITHER TENDING

V/ORLD ECOiYOMIC SURVEY 1936-37 DR. J. B. CONDLIFFE’S ANNUAL REVIEW The Economic Intelligence Service of the League of Nations has just published the “World Economic Survey, 1936-37.” After six years of publication, the survey has now an established place in economic literature. It digests both for the experts and for the general public the mass of technical publications that now appear on different aspects of the world economic situation. The survey begins with a chapter which discusses the effects of the Tripartite Agreement of September, 1936, and the extent to which that agreement remedied price discrepancies and provided a greater measure of exchange stability. After a discussion of the various factors of expansion, such as increased prosperity in the raw material producing countries, industrial expansion, and the stimulus of rearmament, an important chapter is devoted to production, stocks and trade. Among the striking social effects of the rapid increase in industrial production noted in this chapter, is an increase of productivity coincident with a maisive reduction in unemployment. An important section is devoted to the relation between manufacturing production and international trade. There is still a serious lag in recovery as regards trade in foodstuffs and exchange of manufacture. The remaining chapters are devoted to a description and measurement of rising price levels, the improvement of labour conditions and the increase in world trade. The last two chapters on the control of credit and the economic situation in July, 1937, are of special interest. In the former, attention is drawn to the fact that, whereas in previous cycles the first signs of a strained credit situation occurred in the short-term market, in the present cycle long-term interest rates have been the first to rise. Despite the opportunity given to reduce indebtedness “the rather ominous tendency towards the contraction of new domestic debt” noted in the previous year’s survey was further accentuated during the year. Debt is being accumulated as a result of rearmament, expenditure on public works, social services and relief, etc. The final chapter is devoted to a discussion of the evolution of the trade cycle under the influence of cross currents of a non-economic character—the international political situation, rearmament, the fighting in the Far East and in Spain. Under the influence of these factors, it is pointed out, “prices are beginning to rise and shortages of certain commodities to develop, so that already standards of living are being injuriously affected.” The economic situation of the chief countries in July, 1937, is surveyed in this chapter, particular attention being given to the United States, the U.S.S.R., Japan, Italy, Germany and Great Britain. A final section relates to the monetary situation, with particular reference to the countries which have recently devalued their currencies.