THE FROZEN MEAT TRADE.

Wanganui Chronicle, Volume LXXVI, Issue 18444, 30 March 1922, Page 2

THE FROZEN MEAT TRADE.

WEDDEL’S REVIEW. From Messrs W. Weddel and Co.’s comprehensive review dated liondon, February 17 (just to hand) we make the following extracts : GENERAL RETROSPECT AND SUMMARY. A year ago the view was expressed that ‘‘the world-wide tendency to food prices to recede to lower levels was not likely to be resisted for long in the case of meat*” It was not; but the extent and tbo severity of the collapse that took place in 1921 greatly exceeded anticipations. The year was a disastrous one for most traders; and there is already a universal desire to forget its bitter experiences, even if its hard lessons 1 cannot be ignored. Trouble began early in the year—even before the withdrawal of the last vestiges of Government control, with its artificially high b as is of values, on 29th March, and difficulties multiplied as the year advanced. Tlie collapse of the American and Continental markets threw unexpected and, to some extent, unsuitable supplies upon this market. Labour unrest in New Zealand interfered seriously with the movements of refrigerated shipping both at home and abroad, and the sain© factor in this country contributed largely to the creation of unemployment, which, later in the year, checked consumption. Storage difficulties followed upon interference with the normal sequence of sailings, and for months there was congestion at the principal British ports. When that was relieved late in the autumn, home supplies were at their maximum, and the market simply could not withstand tlie resulting avalanche, under which prices collapsed in the closing months of the year. The extent of the debacle is shown by contrasting January values with those ruling in December, which reveal an all round shrinkage of just 50 per cent., some descriptions suffering even more than that. Having regard to the average reduction of 30 per cent, established in wholesale prices of other commodities during 1921, this breakdown in meat prices was unduly severe; but som© indications of recovery began to show themselves before the year closed. Tli© 1921 index figure of wholesale prices for all kinds of imported beef, mutton and lamb is 180 as coffipared with 2-40 in 1920, 272 in 1919, and 295 in 1918. These figures are arrived at on the basis which would have produced 100 as the corresponding standard in 1913. Important though th® average yearly reductions thus revealed may be, the prices actually ruling at the end of 1921 disclose a still more noteworthy approach to pre-war parity. That index figure was 123, or only 23 per cent, above the 1913 standard, which was by no means a low one.

It cannot be suggested tlwit retail prices have shrunk to anything like the same marked extent; and though it may l>e exceedingly difficult to support that view by definite proof, there can be little doubt that consumers generally have. not. as yet enjoyed the full benefit of the very material reductions which have taken place in wholesale prices. Naturally this slump produced consternation amongst producers in all parts of the world, and remedies were formulated according to the circumstances of the various producing countries. British, Australian, New Zealand and Argentine farmers had their several 'deas as to what would be most effective. Guaranteed prices, Empire preference, compulsory or voluntary pooling, nationalisation of the industry', were demanded in turn —but as yet without definite result. Most Governments are fighting shy of such calls, realising that their mam function is to govern and nob to trade.

The number of cattle and sheep in the Unitod Kingdom increased by 122,600 and 866,400 head respectively during the twelve months ending 4th Jun© last. Although these figures represent additions of only 1 per cent, and 3.5 per cent, respectively, they may be accepted as very welcome signs of a recovery in the position of domestic supplies. New Zealand alone furnished us with fully as many careases of mutton and lamb as were supplied by the flocks of the Old Country. Importations in 1921 exceeded all previous records. Excluding live stock and fresh killed meat, which amounted to 26,330 tons, no less than 917,414 tons of beef, mutton and lamb were imported into the United Kingdom as compared with 810,415 tons in 1920, 528,354 tons in 1919, and 720,257 tons in 1913. With a home production estimated at 1,056,400 tons, 47 per cent, of the total consumption was imported last year. In London district, 80 to 85 per cent, of the meat marketed came from overseas. In other words, only one Londoner out of seven can now reckon upon having British-fed meat to eat.

Any bias against imported meat which may have existed before the war has been removed under the stress of these past seven years of world-wide unrest ; and in view of the increased and still growing dependence of our people upon foreign sources of supply for weir daily food, they cannot now afford, to indulge any lingering prejudices on the subject, even if they so desired. Ten years ago little more than onethird of our meat supply was imported; to-dav the proportion is practically one. half.

The world’s export output of mutton, lamb and beef (frozen and chilled) was somewhat curtailed in 1921 as a direct result of the falling-off in Continental requirements. Shipments from all sources aggregated 970,300 tons as compared with 1,076,700 tons in 1920 and 1,111,500 tons in 1919. In 191 ft only.

764,900 tons wer o shipped from all sources.

The Continental trade was a. disappointment as compared with the records for 1919 and 1920. The importations of frozen meat (including pork) into France, Belgium. Holland. Germany and Italy are estimated at 186.000 tons against 300.000 tons in 1920. Several factors combined to bring about this reduction in imports, but more especially the state of cKaos in international rates of exchange. Other contributory causes were the lack of money in most European countries, the improvement in the status of local flocks and herds, definite efforts put forth on the part of some countries to check imports of meat, and finally the relatively high prices demanded by exporters during the greater part of the past year. Evidently, the Continent o£. Europe is not in a position to absorb nearly so much overseas meat as was hoped for after peace was established. GENERAL OUTLOOK. So fap as supplies are concerned the outlook is by no means reassuring. In the case of beef it may be less disconcerting than in the case of mutton and lamb; but in neither is there any promise of abundance in the near future. It may be taken for granted that, under ordinary conditions, home supplies of beef will be relatively short in the coming year, for the reason that the number 4>f cattle in the country of suitable age for slaughter is greatly reduced. Home mutton must also be scarcer, because the flocks are statiding still or receding relatively to the population, which, in ten years, has increased from 43,000,000 to about 47,000.000 persons.

Apart from the home supplies, the United Kingdom draws more or less freely from overseas countries. The herds in these countries numbered 163 million head in 1911 and 178 millions in 1921, while the flocks, which aggregated 326 million head in 1911, now total only 261 millions Only comparatively small Dtrcentages of these animals can be exported, and it must be recognised that mere numbers are not so important as financial results in determining the volume of supplies destined to reach this market. Even if the flocks and herds which could be drawn upon ■’.vere much greater and were increasing more rapidly than they are, there could be no certainty of large importations resulting; but with comparatively stationary live stock figures and a steadily increasing population, the position of supplies, broadly speaking, must be deemed unsatisfactory from the consumers’ point of view. The general outlook as regards the world’s demand is not, however, so unfavourable for the British consumer. Two years ago there existed an important and apparently assured Continental trade. A year ago its position was becoming somewhat unstable. By the middle of 1921 it had become of no great importance; and by the close of the year it had shrunk to very small dimensions. The principal reason for this withdrawal from the market must be sought for in the post-war financial condition of Europe rather than in any definite lack of desire on the part of Continental people to import refrigerated meat. It is impossible at present to say when stability in the exchanges is likely to be restored, but until that barrier to trading is removed, importations of meat are not likely to be renewed in any volume. The opportunity of opening up Continental markets created by the war was unique; and although the check now met with may be a fortunate happening for the British public it is a serious misfortune for producers generally, and especially for these in the Southern Hemisphere who have enlarged their plants and widened their whole outlook in anticipation of a big demand from Central Europe. The United States is more likely to import than to export meat in any quantity, and a revived enquiry for New Zealand mutton and lamb from American buyers is not unlikely to arise despite the heavy tariff recently imposed. Turning to the. home market, there are undoubted evidences that a strong consumptive •'demand springs up the moment prices reach a reasonably lewlevel. This feature presented itself in a somewhat erratic fashion during 1921 because of strikes and unemployment; but throughout the year there was always a ready outlet for the best qualities. The undercurrent was especially noticeable in the case of mutton and lamb; but in meef also—except for the lower grades of quality—there was considerable elements of strength. That being so, and the immediate future of home live stock being very uncertain, a serious position might be created for consumers if any Talling off in importations should follow the recent drop in values. Unless as much meat is imported into Great Britain as is produced in the United Kingdom, some sections of the public must go short. For these needed supplies we must look to Australia, New Zealand and the Argentine Republic. All other sources together, welcome and necessary as they are, cannot furnish much more than one-tenth of our import requirements, or onetwentieth part of our total consumption.

Not only is this country becoming more and more deepndent upon outside sources for its meat supply, but considerably more than half of what must be imported comes from foreign countries. The dangers latent in this position of dependence hardly need to be pointed out, they are so obvious; but, notwithstanding the recommendations of more than one committee of investigation appointed by the present Government to report on the matter, nothing is being done officially to apply any remedy. PROSPECTS FOR 1922. With the probability of less abundant supplies in aggregate at home, and from overseas, the position would be entirely favourable for sellers, were it not that an increased proportion of the world’s output of beef may have to seek a market in this country, for lack of Continental outlets. A dull general trade must have some restrictive effect upon the consumptive demand; but, on the other hand, even a slight increase of employment will doubtless set that demand going again, unless prices generally were to advance materiallyIf the popular taste could be diverted for a time from mutton and lamb, which are scarce and not likely to bocome over plentiful, to beef (of which there are large stocks that could be quickly replenished) it would be an advantage to all concerned. While some recovery from the exaggerated depression in values established towards the close of 1921, is almost certain to be made, the average level of tlic past year is not likely to be approached, except temporarily. The general tendency must be towards re-es-tablishing the popular prices of 1913. Working costs at all stages must be brought down further if producers are to be tempted to send to this market the increased shipments so necessary to keep prices at a moderate level.