JAPAN IN DIFFICULTIES HER CHANCES IN A WAR.

Star (Christchurch), Volume LXVI, Issue 20341, 26 June 1934, Page 6

JAPAN IN DIFFICULTIES HER CHANCES IN A WAR.

Faces Plenty of Domestic Problems: China*s Sympathies are with Russia.

By

Bruce Barton.

If Japan and Russia have a war, which would win? “Japan,” say the Japanese militarists; and some of the foreign observers in Tokio agree. “ Russia,” say people recently in Moscow, who have travelled across Siberia and counted the trainloads of soldiers and ammunition on their way to the scene of possible conflict. Between Japan and Russia are the 400,00 0.000 Chinese. What do they think about‘it? The first answer is that at least 399,000,000 think nothing about it whatever.

'J'HE INDIVIDUAL CHINESE goes about his affairs in the same way his ancestors have for 4000 years. His interest is not diffused over a variety of social institutions. For his town, his province or the nation he has small concern; almost his whole capacity for loyalty is concentrated in his family, and his motto in matters not pertaining to his own personal welfare is 44 Let George do it.” Give him a satisfactory living, and by and large he cares not who makes the laws or holds the offices, who starts wars or wins them. Centuries of experience have bequeathed him the philosophic notion that all governments are bad; that every ruler, whatever his platform or promises, will find ways to increase taxes; and that the less a man concerns himself with politics or international affairs, the happier will be his journe}' through this world. A small, powerful minority has different notions. With a member of this group I had a long, frank talk. His identity cannot be revealed further than to say he is one of the half dozen most influential men in China. A Different Russia. When I asked him whether Japan and Russia would have a war, he answered: 44 It is inevitable.” He said Japan would be up against a far different situation than when she tackled Russia before. 44 In the territory where the fighting will take place, Russia has 400,000 soldiers,” he went on. 44 They are well-equipped, highly trained and aching to go. In fact, their enthusiasm has been raised to so high a pitch that if they are not ordered forward, there is real danger that they may take the situation into their own hands. 44 In Vladivostok are at least a dozen submarines Russia has transported overland in sections and assembled. Most important, Russia has between six and seven hundred aeroplanes and bombers with plenty of fuel and ammunition and a cruising radius sufficient to take them over the cities where are concentrated more than 10,000,000 Japanese. ‘‘Japan Will Lose.” 44 Tokio, the capital, would be bombed, as would Osaka, the Pittsburgh of Japan, and Nagoya, Yokohama and Kobe. Whether they would be destroyed is something no one can predict, for the present day aeroplane has never been given its full test in war. But these hundreds of aeroplanes are a nightmare to Japan. 4 ‘ She does not want to hear their motors throbbing over her cities. She does not want to fight now. Her army is not fully modernised. We saw it at Shanghai, and discovered that her generals had not yet learned the lessons of the Great War. The tactics were those of the Germans in 1914, mass attack.

Russia is not Japan’s only threat by any means. Mention any problem you choose, J-Pan has it. While I was in Tokio the Cabinet forced through the largest, most unbalanced budget in the nation’s history. It did not pass without outspoken criticism, Mr Ryuichiro Nagaoka denouncing it as a 4 ‘ mere balance-sheet showing no unified policy required in coping with the extraordinary situation.” He went on to criticise the Cabinet, pointing out that the balance is maintained by sheer issuance of 44 budget deficit ” loans, that relief of the medium and small merchants and industrialists does not receive due consideration, and that the Government is lacking in any real enthusiasm or plan. Other speakers protested against the lack of agricultural relief measures and predicted that the present policy of pushing expenditures far beyond the limits of income would destroy the credit of the nation. On another day Mr Ban Miyaki. a member of the House of Representatives, arose to speak his mind on the silk question. The price of silk is steadily falling, he said, owing to the competition of rayon. He wanted to know what the Government intended to do about it. The Minister of Agriculture replied with hopeful but unconvincing generalities. That Minister had plenty of bad hours in the recent legislative session. Red Tape and Vacillation. Running through the pages of 44 Contemporary Japan,” a thoughtful review edited principally by professors in the Imperial University at Tokio. one discovers sentences like following: 44 The economy axe must first be applied to all the new expenditures that have crept into .the Budget . . . there is plenty of room for economy. We have an expression, 4 Oykusho shiki,’ which means official manner, covering delay, red tape and vacillation. There are too many idle hands in Government offices, and the corollary of superfluous men is superfluous expense.” 44 The annual increase in Japan’s overcrowded population—l,oo7,39B in 1932 perhaps gives the impression that knowledge of birth control is entirely lacking or has been rejected in Asia’s most progressive country. . . . The assumption of ignorance is quite amiss. For the past eleven years, birth control has been a persistent topic of thought and discussion.” A terribly unbalanced budget, agricultural discontent, college graduates who cannot find jobs, the breakdown of the old-fashioned family solidarity—these are some of the factors in Japan that combine to create official headaches. Add to them the relentless pressure of increasing population, in little islands already too full, and the shortage of vital raw materials, such as iron and petroleum, and you begin to understand why the conquest of Manchuria went steadily ahead Admiration and Pity. One leaves the island kingdom with mixed feelings of admiration, apprehension and pity. Here are sixty million people—ninety million if you count Korea and Formosa—who have accomplished more since the middle of the last century than any other people have ever accomplished in the same length of time. They are almost incredibly industrious. In a time when the United States is paying men to work less, and farmers to raise less, they are working ten and twelve hours a day for what in America would be starvation wages. But Japan, in such a hurry to go forward—she must keep going. Where and to what end? (N.A.N.A. Copyright.)

44 The little punitive expedition the Japanese expected to be a simple operation, ending in easy victory, developed into a crude, blundering slaughter of innocent farmers and destruction of civilian property. There was no glory at Chapei and the Japanese know it. 44 They do not underestimate Russia’s strength. They would like time to get themselves in shape, to consolidate their position in Manchukuo, to strengthen their military and financial positions. 44 But dare they take the time? Will not Russia’s strength increase even faster than their own? I am one who expects the struggle will come soon, possibly this fall, and that Japan will lose.” So spoke one of the wisest and most powerful of the Chinese. Perhaps his wish is father to the thought. He was perfectly frank in saying that the sympathies of his Government would be with the Russians. China would try to remain neutral, he said, but neutrality would be difficult.