“A Political Gamble.

Star (Christchurch), Volume LXVI, Issue 20340, 25 June 1934, Page 6

“A Political Gamble.

Dear Sir,—A general election in New Zealand at the end of September. The idea sounds preposterous, but when it is examined closely it is not so absurd. _ It all depends on whether Mr Coates is a political gambler. If he is, it would not be surprising, to the writer at any rate, if New’ Zealand sees a general election in three months, wdth Mr leading the Government forces, and the United Party absorbed by the Reform Party. Mr Coates has his opportunity when the Reserve Bank begins to function on August 1, as he will probably be able to produce some very attractive “ rabbits ” out of the bag. These “ rabbits ” would have the effect of sweetening the electorate towards the Government and bringing back into the fold most cf the farmers who are now disgruntled. It may be his plan to give bounties {o the farmers, to restore partially the salary and pension cuts, to give something mere to the unemployed and to carry through a vigorous policy of public works. If he wants to do these things he has his opportunity when the Reserve Bank gets going. Suppose, then, there is a sudden dissolution and a snap election with a campaign of about three weeks’ duration, with a lavish advertising campaign paid for with funds which the Reform Party is now busy accumulating. Mr Coates would be hailed as the man who had thought his way out of the depression and brought prosperity back to the people. In a election the Labour Party would be caught unprepared, and there would be a good prospect of Mr Coates securing a small but safe majority in a Parliament elected for a definite term of four years. It is a gamble, and a gambler take the chance. On the other hand if Mr Coates elects to wait until the end of next year for the election he wrill run a number of risks. For one thing, the Government may not survive the coming session and an election may be forced at an unpropitious time. It is possible also that conditions at the end of next year may be even worse than they are at present, and that the Government would suffer a similar fate to the Conservative Government in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan, which was entirely wiped out. I suggest that the election, if it is to be held early, will take place before the end of September for the reason that the New Zealand Government would want to get in ahead of the Federal election in Australia owing to the psychological effe< t that would be created in this country if, as seems probable, the Lyons Government is defeated. Time will show whether Mr Coates is prepared to take a gambler’s chance this year. —l am, etc., SOOTHSAYER.