IN FOR WET WINTER?

Star (Christchurch), Volume LXVI, Issue 20313, 24 May 1934, Page 16

IN FOR WET WINTER?

Forecasting Cannot be . Definite. “ The unexpected is always happening in weather matters, and although the statement is probably quite satisfactory, there is no big body of evidence to show that such records will forecast dry or wet periods in the future.” That | was the comment made by a member of the staff of the Christchurch MagI netic Observatory yesterday upon i the assumption that Christchurch is | about to enter a period of wet years for which grounds are offered by. a 1 chart in the possession of the Christ- ! church Drainage Board, j The chart, which is based on rainfall records at the Canterbury Agricultural College, Lincoln, and in Christchurch. I establishes an average line for local I rainfall, compared with the average line, from year to year. It suggests that Christchurch must soon start on I a series of years with a greater rainfall than that of the abnormal period just passed—for eight consecutive years the Christchurch rainfall has been below the average, according to the record. The observatory official said that a great deal was said about weather cycles, but when one read comments by meteorological experts different light was often thrown on the subject. lie did not ridicule the assumption made from the Drainage Board records, but the investigations of American experts had proved conclusively that such forecasts were not always reliable. It is quite possible that there will be heavy rainfalls in later months, for the official stated that the observatory records showed that heavy falls had occurred in more than one month in the year. There were five inches of rain in March, 1902, and Deceml>er was also a very wet month. Over seven inches of rain fell in June, 1911, and the fall in December of the same year was G.o6in. Mr F. L. Wooles, in commenting upon the assumption, said that rainfall tended to increase during periods of maximum sunspot activity. There was usually a gap of eleven years between such periods, one of which was just commencing now. It was likely that there might be a period of wet years in the future, although such a forecast would not necessarily apply to Canterburv alone. Also, it was quite possible that the period might be broken by dry years.