SOME UNDERLYING CAUSES OF THE RIOTS IN PARIS.

Star (Christchurch), Volume LXVI, Issue 20266, 28 March 1934, Page 8

SOME UNDERLYING CAUSES OF THE RIOTS IN PARIS .

To-dag’s Special Article.

A Strong French Government Wanted to Bury the Hatchet with Germany ,

By Sir Philip Gibbs, K.B.E

Germany is watching the situation in France with lynx eyes. So also is Italy. Both those countries and both their leaders know that anything like a revolution in France would be the signal for action. Not necessarily war. No one wants war in Europe to-day. But they want revisions and readjustments which may lead to war. German will power, its demand for equality, its claim to influence and authority far beyond its own boundaries would be very aggressive if France’s will power were weakened by civil strife and internal confusion. That above all is why the situation in France is enormously dangerous.

'J'HE MOST BRILLIANT and thoughtful of French writers, like Pierre Mille and

“ Pertinax,” believe, according to recent utterances, that France has already given away her case by yielding to international sentiment and especially to English and Italian pressure. They believe that Germany has already re-armed. They believe that recent French Governments—so many of them in the last few years, have surrendered step by step to the growing advance of German aggressiveness. They withdrew from the Rhine before the date was due. They admitted Germany’s claim to equality of arms. Their last pretence of security has been a pitiful clinging to a policy of “ control ” which they maintain would only be enforced in France and would certainly be evaded by Germany. I do not agree with these views but I report them knowing that they express a great body of opinion in France. The truth is that the majority of French people are convinced, and nothing will shake their belief, that a new war w-ith Germany is now inevitable and that only the date is uncertain. Fear of Disintegration. In French public opinion as a whole there is the growing belief that a continuance of weak Socialist or semi-Socialist Governments would lead to a moral disintegration of France similar to that which led to the defeat at Sedan in 1870 when German soldiers marched into the heart of Paris. They want a strong National Government. They want a leadership in which they have faith. They want efficiency, discipline, national unity, because of the menace of the German nation which has all those qualities and all that strength. I am one of those who believe that a strong France is the best safeguard of European peace, though not for the same reasons as those I have quoted. That is to say, a demoralised and disintegrated France would undoubtedly result in a more aggressive spirit in Germany and movements which would make peace hang by very slender threads. On the other hand, there is not much comfort in the thought of a French Fascism flinging challenges to Germany across the frontier and increasing military strength for an “ inevitable ” war. Bury the Hatchet. There is an alternative which may be taken by this new National Government if it has the time and power. There is only one way to avoid that next war. It is for France to make friends with Germany and bury the old hatchet. Only a very strong French Government having the complete confidence of the nation utterly beyond suspicion as to honesty and honour could adopt such a policy, which might be accepted with enthusiasm by Germany. That sounds fantastic. In most minds it demands a miracle. Yet I have seen such miracles happen, and one was the English entente cordiale with France very shortly after Fashoda, when England and France were not far from war with each other. It happened after France and England had fought each other on and off for a thousand years. There is still time to avoid that so-called inevitable war. Just now the rank and file of the Nazi movement are not out for war. Germany has too many internal troubles to solve before she looks beyond

her frontiers with bellicose designs. When France swings to the right, as it is certain to do. Europe will be faced with the immediate question: Is war then going to happen by intensive preparation on all sides? It is enormously to be hoped that will be a Government strong enough and wise enough to arrange a pact of peace directly with Germany, as Poland has done. Dictatorship Anticipated. The troubles which broke into rioting are by no means over. The parties of the Left and the anarchical elements in Paris will not stay quiet as long as they have a chance of appealing to passion, and they still have that chance or think they have. They will be infuriated if Doumergue endeavours to alter the Constitution by limiting the powers of the Chamber of Deputies or by dissolving Parliament, as it is likely he will do, if trouble continues. I anticipate something like a dictatorship ruling France by decrees. If further rioting and outbreaks occur on a serious scale it is probable that M. Doumergue will declare martial law and call certain classes to the colours. It was by that means that Briand broke the general strike before the war. Here then is an analysis of the situation in France to-day. No one should dare to make prophecies of what will happen during the next few months. In France, as in other countries, there are momentous forces at work beyond even the control of strong governments. Is there any financial man who is quite certain that France will not be forced off the gold standard by events now happening in the United States? Who can calculate what may be the effect on a nation’s psychology if new burdens of taxation are placed on shoulders unable to support such an additional strain on small incomes with rising prices? The economic problem in France may soon swamp the political issue and wipe out memories of swindling and corruption. These are uncertainties. But everyone who knows France well is bound to believe—subject to the inconsistencies of human nature —that her people are essentially moderate and Republican. The Unfailing Appeal. To the average Frenchman as far as I know him the restoration of the monarchy is unthinkable. Only less unthinkable than a plunge into Communism. The cheers which welcomed M. Doumergue in Paris were the expression of a public desire for honesty, clean government and normal conditions. The fallen lamp-posts, the smashed kiosks, the broken statues, and all the signs of rioting, are a shock and a shame to the mind of the middle class Parisian. He sees that his own rage and disgust with dishonest politicians was exploited by a hooliganism . with which he has no sympathy. He will not easily be caught that way again. In any case, he will respond as he always has done to one appeal, “ La Patrie est en danger!” And that appeal will be made because for one thing it is true. M. Doumergue or any one of his colleagues in a government of national union has a right to remind France that the country is in danger. France has great reserves of strength and caution. In my opinion they will prevail. (N.A.N.A.—Copyright.)