ANALYSING THE VOTING.

Star (Christchurch), Issue 16412, 28 April 1921, Page 8

ANALYSING THE VOTING.

BIG SURPRISES POSSIBLE. VOTE COUNTING STARTS, Big surprises may be in store for some of the candidates in the City Council election. The scientific accuracy of Proportional Representation is such that the race is never won until the numbers go up. The distribution of surplus votes in the order of preference, and the eliminp.tion, one by one, of the lowest candidates as the count proceeds, will show where the preference lie. At the Harbour * Board election in 3917 there was a noted instance of a candidate looked to be a certainty for election as his first preferences were almost within striking distance of the quo La. This was the case of the late Charles Allison. Curiously enough, he received practically no subsequent prej ferences from other ballot papers, and j ho was defeated, much to his disgust. I The same fate mav await some of tho City Council candidates, while others I who appeared to be in a hopeless posiI tion may receive an unexpected lift.

If party voting has been consistent, as it lias in 1917, the Citizens’ Association is entitled, in addition to Agar, Flesher and Brunt, who are certain of election, to three or four other seats. If preferences have been given alpha- i betically oil the Citizens’ ticket it might reasonably be expected that Andrews and Buchanan will have a better chance j of election than Manhire, M’Kellar, i and Williams, although these three j ; have substantially more first prefer- j j cnees than Andrews and Buchanan. In I the case of Labour, Sullivan and Archer [ are sure of election, but two more Lahour seats should be filled, and possiblv three. Armstrong should be the next nominee io secure election, but it is impossible to say how the surpluses will go, whether alphabetically or other-

i wise. If alphabetically. then Cooko | and Hunter may be in the running. (As the Independents represent no ! party it is unsafe to assume that those i who gave first preferences t-o Indepeml- ‘ <nts would cast their subsequent, prei ferences for Tmlorondonts also. Therei fore, the Independents are hard to deal with. They might get two. three or even four seats, but the probabilities j are in favour of three seats. There is a false impression abroad j that second, third and subsequent preferences are in some wav watered down or reduced in value. This impression arises from an incomplete understanding of the process of transferring votes. Broadly, it may be stated that if Sullivan liaa 1880 votes, and requires only 826 votes to secure election, there aro 1054 full value votes allotted to other candidates. Similarly, if Butterfield, with his 103 first preferences, should he the first candidate eliminated, his 103 votes would be transferred at full value to the other candidates in order of preference. It is this simple fact that prevents any vote from being lost, and also ensures, in the case of consistent party voting, that each party’s strength in preferences will be 'reflected in seats in tbo council. For that reason the probabilities can be summarised thus:— Equitable * renreV’otes. sentation. Seats. Citizens 5902 6.74 7 Labour . 4966 5.65 6 Independent 3173 3.61 3

TO-DAY’S PROGRESS. j RETURNING OFFICER AT WORK. Mr Albert Freeman, the returning officer, and his staff of about twenty, started work this morning t-o check the I rolls. This, under the ordinal - }' proj cess, would take a couple of days with j all the deputies present. Mr • Freej man’s method does the work in a few hours with the merest fraction of the ! Staff employed in the old method. He. j takes a clean roll and divides it into j six even parts. Each part is taken by i a girl clerk, while another set of six other clerks call over the deputies rolls. In this way six couples are continuously at work at different tables, the deputies* rolls being passed from table to table as each section is finished. This afternoon the scrutiny of tho rolls will be finished, and a V-tart will be made on the official count of first preferences. Accuracy in this count is of the utmost importance, for on it the quota depends. The official quota will probably be arrived at to-night, after a very careful scrutiny has been made to see that there have been no votes imr.roperiy disallowed as informal. .. The second process in the proportional representation count is the distribution of surpluses, working from onllivun cimvmvards. This work will he commenced to-morrow, and it is certain that further seats will ho filled ns a result Dm mo st rapid prosress, •cn'r/’; W 1" ’’ P ' lW , e ' v,lpn candidates come to he eliminated, for the transfer of their preferences will ho eaßv and ranid. IX3 in impossible to say when the election will be comulcted, but Mr FVe#> man intends to work with his staff in the evenings ns well as throughout the