POLITICAL SITUATION.

Star (Christchurch), Issue 11281, 8 January 1915, Page 8

POLITICAL SITUATION.

PETITIONS AND PROTESTS. TALK" OF A COALITION. [Feom Ovu Si*eciat# CoiiiiESroNnKNt.J VVIIILLINGTON. January 7. ,Tu«t at tho moment, no ono but the members of the Cabinet seems to b» takin" a, very lively interest in the political situation. Probably the lender of the Opposition is watching as closely as the Prime Minister is the effoits that are beijig niado to straighten out tho muddle, produced by tho general election, but Sir Joseph Ward' does not carry his heart, on his sleeve, and he is going about his business with no more apparent concern than ho might be, expected to display if ho were comfortably seated on tho Treasury • Benches or definitely excluded from their enjoyment, for another three \OtW S. _ , 11' l i "With Ministers it is diflerent. Whatever else* the election has failed to do, it has shown that the Government, has lost around. It came into office neai ly three \ears ago with, a, majouty of eight, and within a. few months it, increased this majority to ten by fne capture of tho Egniont scat-, the-change from one side to tho other making a difference ofc two in the strength ot parties. At tho polls last month the whole of this majority disappeared, and the, best, the Government, can hope for now is to hold, office through mistake of a. deputy rcfcurning-officer in Dttnedin Central. In tho circumstances. Ministers are naturally anxious for another opportunity to' justify their existence. Mr Massey assumes the air of the man in possession, and says tbart, nothing can be done till the result of the polling is definitely known. Whether this will be to-morrow, two weeks hence, or t.w'o months hence no one can tell, and in the, meantime the Prime Minister is sitting very still and very tight. There was a Cabinet meeting,to-day, at which Mr Fisher's tardy resignation was received', and there will he another liefore the end of the week, at, which the vacancy may be filled. It is taken for granted here that, Mr Guthrie, the senior Government Whip, will succeed to Mr Fisher's place in the Cabinet, and it is generally conceded that no better choice could be made. Tho member for Oroua is not an orator, nor even a. debater, and he has had no opportunity to display any ability he may possess as an administrator, but he is painstaking and' industrious, and lias a certain canny geniality, which makes and holds friends. He is as consistent in his Conservatism, as _Mr Fisher is inconsistent in his Liberalism, and his appointment would do nothing to heal the widening breach between Reform and Labour. It is reported now that Mr Statham and Mr Munro and" their friends have agreed that there shall be a fresh contest for the Dunedin Central seat .and that in this way the cost of a petition against the magisterial decision shall be avoided. Both the party leaders profess to be facing the prospect of a second trial of strength with confidence, and each is ready with reasons why hi:-: •t iew of the position is the correct one. On ono side it is argued that the lessened interest in the Bible in schools nuestion will reduce the opposition to .Mr Statham and on the other that it will improve the chances of Mr Munro. What seems pretty certain is that a 'arge sectional vote which went to the .Reform candidate last month will be transferred to the Labour candidate when the' fate of the Government and not the introduction of religious instruction into the schools is the crucial question at the pells. At any rate the contest will excite the keenest interest all over the country.

There seems to he little doubt that h petition against Mr Parr's return for Kdcn would succeed, but if the decision or tin' Court did not. include the disqualification of the sitting: member for r, .■■iiL. ; ';'ic"tly long period to prevent him seeking re-election the Opposition would profit little by its effort. This is t!:o pr.i'it .the interested parties are now considering, and it will not be surif the popular Mayor is left undisturbed. Petitions in Hawbe's Bay and Bay of Tslands. as well as in the '.Northern Maori District, are al~o being r!i-;:u.-,:.(;d, hut the outcome of the whole business may lie. to lenre. well, or bad as the cp.se may he, alone. Whatever may happen in this electorate or that it ir; chvions that parties must be very closelv balanced when Parliament meets, and this prospect has set many people talking of the feasibility of a coalition. Mr Ma'ssey himself is said not to be altogether opposed to the idea as a temporary' expedient to avoid unseemly wranglivg till the conclusion of the war. but Hir Joseph Ward could scarcely accept :.nch an arrangement without receiving much larger concessions that have yet been suggested from the other side. Labour, too. has to be considered, and in its present temper it would hardly favour a suspension of hostilities that involved the indefinite postponement of the progressive legislation it is seeking. Tts contention is that Mr Massey having insisted upon holding the election in spite of the protests of the Opposition, must abide by its result. It appears logical enough.

MR FISHER RESIGNS. AWAITING A BY-ELECTION. A PROSPECTIVE HOME TRIP. [From Otjk Correspondent.] WELLINGTON, January 7. Tho resignation from Mr F. M. B. Fisher from the office of Minister of Customs and Marine- and Minister in Charge of the Electoral Department, was accepted to-day by the Governor. The ex-Minister was reported to have booked his passage Home, hut this arrangement is at tho moment in suspense. Nobody knows exactly what will be the outcome of the political situation, and if a by-election or general ©lection came along Mr Fisher would certainly be a candidate. I understand that if things d'o not reach a definite stage within a month the exMinister will start for England, but journey via Canada, in case it is found necessary to recall him to some New Zealand electorate. He is a young man, only thirty-seven years of age, actually, the age at which the present Prime Minister entered Parliament, and less than the age at which his wellknown father commenced his political career, consequently, he and his friends consider the break cpiitc temporary, though it was so decisive that ho would scarcely face Wellington Central again. "We are parting from. Mr Fisher j with a very great deal of regret,' said the Prime Minister, to a representative nf the " Lvttelton Times" this even ing, " but. we know that the parting will be only temporary, and that the Dominion will soon call Mr Fisher again to its councils. T think it is recognised by a large number of people that as a private member and a Minister he has been an exceedingly useful man." As for the ex-Minister's successor, Mr Massey made it, clear that Cabinet had. not discussed the matter, and it is evident >lO appointment will be made until the political horizon hecomes loss foggy.

The question as t<> which member of the Government Purtv shuli sucr,-ed Mr Fisher i.-> one of considerable, interest, states the Wellington Post. Ihe general rule is that the position goes, almost as a matter of right to the Senior Government Whip, who in this case is Mr D. H. Guthrie, the re-elec-ted member for Oroua. The name or Mr E. Newman, member for Rangitikei, has also been mentioned as a candidate

for the portfolio. Both members havo done valuable service for the party. In any case, it is not considered Jiko.ly that tbo vacancy will bo filled until the present, condition of political uncertainty has been restored to older, which may be some timo yet, and until tho party a.-, a whole lias been consulted. If tho political readjustment, loaves the Government with a majority, (lie now Minister will probably take the portfolio of Education and Agriculture, thus relieving both the Prime .Minister and the, Hon .1. Allen of responsibilities which all along been exceedingly burdensome. .DFNEIHN CENTRAL SEAT. [FROM OCR ConmcsT'ONnycxT. | DENKDIN, January 7. I have authority lor the statement, that Mr Stathr.in's resignation as member for Onncdin Central will he posted this week.