JAPAN AND THE UNITED STATES.

Star (Christchurch), Issue 9092, 23 November 1907, Page 2

JAPAN AND THE UNITED STATES.

THE YELLOW JOURNALS' YELLOW WAR.

(By WILLIAM H. BRILL, in " Leslie's Weekly.")

One of the Strangest freaks of modern civilisation has again made itself manifest. It is a desire ror war. No matter how loudly the doctrine of universal peace is preached throughout the world, the fighting spirit which has come down through the ages since the beginning of time is bound ever so often to come to the surface. Ne matter hew foolish tlie idea of war may be; no matter whether there be but the slightest reason for an appeal to arms, blatant jingoism is bound to appear occasionally, and while it usually wears itself out in talk and hullabaloo, occasionally its results are serious. America is to-day going through such a period. From the Atlantic to the Pacific, men without the slightest knowledge of conditions or circumstances, newspapers that are always grasping for something sensational, are SHRIEKING FOR BLOOD, and are prophesying that within a- few weeks or a few days the United States will be at it, hammer and tongs, with the Japanese. Over in Japan, politicians are madly tearing the air and demanding that insults put upon Japanese in America be wiped out in blood. And all this goes on in spite of the J fact that the officials of both countries announce almost daily that the/relations between the two Governments are entirely friendly and serene, and that there is no "situation," no dispute whatever between them. To a few .politicians in Japan belongs the honour of having started the present row. Because a few political "outs" in Japan desire to discredit and overthrow the present Cabinet and secure office for themselves, they have picked out two or three little incidents in San Francisco, and demand a resvenge which they, as well as the Saionji Government, know is iiripossible. When ■the San Franciscans excluded Japanese ('children from the white_ schools arid 'placed them -in schools with other Orientals, the row began. The Federal Government stepped in and made peace, hue the Japanese pride was hurt, and the Japanese demand that they be treated as the social equals of any race in the world received a set-back. Then, during a time when the city of San Francisco was almost in a state of anarchy, a few hoodlums attacked a J Japanese restaurant and a Japanese j bath-house and smashed them up. This was another signal for the jingoes' of Japan to attack the Government. And so it has gone on until many Americans in their ignorance believe that war will come. That things have been done in San Francisco that should not have been done, no one will deny ; but the American people are not responsible for the actions of a few toughs. The Japanese who are talking the loudest seem to have forgotten the occurrences of the days immediately following the signing of the peace treaty between Japan and Russia, when Americans were stoned od the streets of Tokio, and the Japanese Government, for fear of further riots, camped two. hundred and fifty soldiers in the grounds of the American Legation and kept them there' for a fortnight. There are those who believe that the time will come when America and Japan must fight for THE MASTERY OF THE PACIFIC, but even if that time is coming, it is many years away. Neither country | wants to fight now ; neither country has any excuse for- fighting. While the | mastery of the Pacific may some day cause the two countries to appeal to arms; neither of them to-day has the slightest desire for war, and neither has the slightest thing to gain from war. Japan -has her hands full in Korea and Manchuria, afid America is not yet awake to the fact that her future lies in the Pacific. That talk of war is silly becomes evident if one makes even a cursory examination of the facts. In the first place, no one believes that the American Government would precipitate war, but there are many who believe £hat the Japanese Government intends to do so. One statement is as foolish as the other. Japan has no idea of making war on the United States, and even if she wanted to do _o it ! would be impossible for many reasons. Someone once said that in order to carry on a war a country needed ten things. The first was determination, the second men, the third equipment, ,and the other seven money. Now, admitting that the Japanese as a nation possessed the first of these, determination to fight the United States, what of the other requirements? First, money, Japan's lack of money, if nothing else, would serve to prevent war at this time. In 1902 the Japanese national debt amounted to about £43,000,000, of which only £10,000,000 was held abroad. To-day the national debt is approximately £180,000,000, two-thirds of which is foreign. In 1902 the total revenue of the Government was about £29,500,000, and the expenditures were about £29,000,000. The estimated revenue for 1907 was £24,000,000, and the estimated expenditures £101,250,000. This difference was to be>made up in part by the float-, ing of another' loan of £20,000,000. On the foreign loans which Japan floated for the purpose of paying the expenses ot the war with Russia, interest is being paid at from four to six per cent, and on her, internal loans .the interest runs from five to .seven per cent. Efforts are now being made to withdraw the six per cent bonds and replace them with bonds drawing only four and onehalf per cent. , To secure her enormous foreign loans, % made at a time when Japan was fighting for her very existence, the Japanese were forced to pledge most of their national income, their customs receipts and the receipts of the TOBACCO AND -OTHER MOJSTOPOLI^S. With this financial showing, where could Japan obtain the money required for a very long and very costly warP The money that defeated Russia came from America and- England. In a war with the United States what country is there that would take the chance of loaning Japan such an enormous sum as would be required P No matter how much sentiment there might be in Japan's favour— and there is at least one great Power that would' without doubt welcome such a conflicts-senti-ment has never been a failing of the great European bankers, and it is from them, in the end, that the money must come.. - . Japan's commerce is one of her greatest assets. During the war with Russia commerce was practically at a standstill. By the system of ship subsidies in effect in Japan practically every ship owned in the country would, in case of war, be called in for government service, as they were during the war with Russia. While war would injure but a small portion of the commerce of the United. States, it would practically put an end to the commerce of Japan. And the internal condition of the country would suffer almost as much. The industries of the country would be paralysed. With half a million men called to arms, and no outlet for the products of the country, every industry would perish, for industrial Japan has not recovered from the blow it received when the best and sturdiest blood of the country was called out to fight Russia. Then would follow industrial stagnation, famine, amd. all the honors that war brings to a country —

that war onhy two years ago brought to Japan. In the breaking off of trade between the two countries Japan would lose a very large share of her iroa and steel, her railroad material, her machinery, her flour, and petroleum. America would lose a portion of her supply of silk-, porcelain, art goods and tea. Japan would be hard put to replace '< what she imports from America. The loss of tbe imports from Japan would not be noticed in America. ' The Japanese HAVE NOT FORGOTTEN THE DARK DAYS OF THE RUSSIAN WAR. They remember the starving women and children, the appeal to America for aid; arid no slight excuse will serve as an excuse for a repetition of those days. For Japan has * counted the cost of war. No country in the world so well .knows that cost to-day. Not only do the men in whose hands rest the reins of government know it, but every little village counts its loss in ken and money and prosperity. " Men, Japan has in plenty. Her standing army to-day probably numbers close to 170,000 men, and with her reserves she could probably put 650^000 men in the field within a short time. But it would not be the army of vetex-ans-we read about. In the standing army to-day there are only a small number who served in the war with Russia — probably not 20 per cent of the whole. The same statement applies to the navy. And now for equipment. The war with Russia lasted for nineteen months, and during that time the Japanese forces, both on land and sea, were fought to the utmost limit. Every rifle, every gun waß kept busy en all possible occasions, with' the result .that when, the war was over, by far the greater part of these weapons were almost useless, The life of the modern highpower arms using smokeless powder is very short. That the Japanese we^e well aware of this fact was shown by the use of black powder in the big siege-guns at Port Arthur and afterward during the first days of the Mule. den battle. But in spite or all preca itions, the natural wear and erosion of both guns and rifles was such during the long period of the war that when it was over there arose the necessity of RE-AIiMING PRACTICALLY THE . ENTIRE ARMY. While the arm mainly used by the Japanese infantry during the war was the Arisaki rifle, a Japanese modification of the Mauser, many of the Reservists were armed with an older and much 'clumsier rifle. And during the latter months of the conflict a great many of the auxiliary troops, such as trainmen and guards on the lines of communications, were armed with captured Russian rifles. This necessitated a knowledge of three different rifles, and required the carrying of two kind* of ammunition, a serious disadvantage in these days Vhen military experts are exerting every effort to secure uniformity. The Arisaki rifle proved during the war to be inferior in every way to the Russian arm, as did the Japanese field-gun. It wasonly the seeming inability of the Russians to profit by their superiority of arms that prevented them from winning several important engagements. In both trifles and fieldguns the America army possesses today much better weapons than even the Russians had — a fact which none know better than the Japanese. There has been no announcement in Japan of the adoption of a new rifle or a new field-gun, and it is probable that another war now would be fought with the old weapons. THE MUCH-VAUNTED JAPANESE NAVY. is in no better .condition than the army. True, the. navy contains a number of new and in every way first-class ships^ but of the fifteen battleships borne on the naval lists, six are rebuilt from the battered hulks captured from the Russians, the value 1 of which is at least problematical, and one is a relic of the old Chinese navy. Even while the war with Russia was in progress many guns on the Japanese ships were worn out and were replaced, and it is cafe to say that not one big naval gun that went into the war is now of any value. Whether they have all been replaced none but the Japanese know, but it is extremely ufnlikely. Many of the ships that were used during the war were damaged much more seriously than the public was given to understand. Repairs have been made, but there is small doubt that in several cases structural weaknesses remain. But it is not only the fact that both army and navy are naturally at a low ebb following the great war with Russia that the Japanese must take into consideration before plunging into another conflict. In addition, there is the spirit of the people. For perhaps the first time in the history or the island emSire the Japanese have counted their cad. The man who saw the corpsestrewn field at Li-kwam-pu, or the bloody elopes of 203 Metre Hill, knows what war is and has had his fill of it. When a country has counted the roll of a hundred thousand dead, and day by day sees another hundred thousand maimed, it knows what war means, and it is not going to plunge into another war while the scars of the last conflict remain unhealed. . The Japanese people have always been a warlike people, but with the advance of modern civilisation the old love of . FIGHTING FOR THE FIGHT'S SAKE IS DYING OUT. The old feudal spirit ie giving way to the modern spirit of commerce, and while the people of Japan will ever be ready to. give their lives when there is need for it, the heed must be made very plain. The day after the formal declaration of war against Russia was published I discussed it with a high government official, a man with unusual ability and. knowledge, of affairs, whose name is known wherever Japan is known. "We have been preparing for this war for ten years," he said, "and today we are ready. When Port Arthur was taken from us we knew that some day the clash must come between our country and Russia, and we began out preparations. To-day we are ready. We are in better condition to begin war to-day than we would be a year from now. We know the task we have before us, and we believe th© time has come when we can accomplish it. For ten years every muscle of the country had been strained to '.6 utmost, every possible effort had been made to prepare for the conflict which years before it had been seen was inevitable. Japan was ready, and Japan won; Russia was not ready, and Russia lost. But RUSSIA'S ADVANCE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC, following out a plan which dates back to the time of Peter the Great, ha 9 only been checked. An ice-free port in the Pacific is her ambition, and she is determined to 6ecure it. No one knows this better than those in whose hands rests the safety of Japan, i'hey have made vthe truce of the Bear, ' and some day, sooner or later, that truce will be broken and the conflict will be on again. Does Japan, then, with this certainty staring her in the face, with the absolute knowledge that some day she must again fight "the Rues for her very existence, intend to waste her energy, her substance, her standing as a world Power, in a war from which she could gain absolutely nothing worth having, even if she won- at every point ? ; It is too ridiculous even for discussion.