THE STORMY PETREL.

Star (Christchurch), Issue 8375, 22 July 1905, Page 1

THE STORMY PETREL.

Take, for instance, the Kaiser. The foreign Press is fond of portraying him as the stormy petrel of international politics, and as a potentate whose unexpected vagaries constitute ia continual menace to the peace of the world. Yet try to iinagyie Germany at present without the Emperor. Even his bitterest enemies and most unkindly critics are forced to admit that he has become to such an extent the moving spirit, not merely of the policy, and admimstration of the Empire, but likewise of every phase of Teuton life and activity, that it. seems that were he to suddenly die the entire administrative machinery of Germany would stop. Absolutely nothing is known about his eldest son and heir — for it is impossible to attach any importance or credence to the silly newspaper articles ascribing to him infatuation for actresses that have never had any existence save in the imaginative brain of their more ingenious than scrupulous Press agents. Our information about him is limited to the fact that he iB but twenty-three ;y ears of age, that he>has just been married, that he is a. devoted son, and that he has been trained in a measure under the direction of his father; also that his 1..0 has been singularly free from those scandals which constitute the Rembrandt shading of the .portraits of almost every European ;scion of royalty. But we are quite in : the dark as to whether he possesses the -strength of character, the experience and' the energy requisite to direct the. policy of Germany in these perilous times. v :

We are ignorant if ho will lean to-

wards Russia or towards the United States and Great Britain in the concert of great Powers, and as to whether he will be able, like his father, to dominate the other Sovereigns of the confederation known as the German Empire, sufficiently to retain in his hands the supreme control of its international relations. In one word, the Crown Prince is an entireh r unknown quantity, handicapped in any case by youth and rnex!>enence, whereas of his father, this at east can be saidj namely, that in spite of all the predictions and apprehensions expressed at the time of his accession to the throne, now some seventeen years ago, his reign has been one of peace, land while he has added to the territorial possessions of Germany, he has accomplished this by statecraft and diplomacy instead of by the sword. In one word, Emperor "William's life constitutes, fudging by the past, a guarantee or "peace, and fchougntful people, students of the present and of the past, rather than mer« speculators as to "the future, will be disposed to agree that his presence at the helm in Germany just now is a subject tor congratulation rather .than of uneasiness. ' AT7STBIAX CONDITIONS. , At Vienna the life of Emperor Francis Joseph is even still more indispensable j tx> the maintenance of tranquillity both j at home and abroad. Indeed, there are many European statesmen or note who do not hesitate to publicly predict that : the death of this sadly-broken and cruelly-bereaved monarch, now in his seventy-fifth year, will /be followed by 4an outbreak of civil war in his dominions and by the disruption of wie IHapsburg Empire. It is not alone that the Hungarians are determined at all costs to be independent oi ! . Austria. ' There are the Groats, as well, more than three million in number, who are resolved to cast of? the yoke of Hungary, their sentiments in this respect being shared by nearly thre« million Roumanians in Hungary. They are all imbued with sentiments of affectionate j loyalty and devotion to the present Emiperor. But. they abhor the Magyars and they denounce the Hungarian Government as tyrannical. In. Austria itself there are some six million Bohemians and aboufc four million Poles, who are firmly benfc upon obtaining, if not fullfledged independence, at any rate au•tonomy of the most far-reaching character, and the single tie that holds them all together is "the now sadly worn thread of their aftVctkm for Francis Joseph . As his nephew and heir, Archduke Francis Ferdinand is extremely unpopular, particularly in Hungary, in Croatia and in the Polish provinces, whore he is regarded as committed to a most reactionary policy, and to a settlement of all these difficulties by armed force rather than by statecraft, it is not unnatural that people should look upon the death of Francis Joseph as.portending chaos of such a character within the Dual Empire as to furnish a pretest for foreign intervention. Indeed, it was not bo long ago that the president of the Fronoh. Chamber of Deputies predicted this in the course of a public address at Paris. TROUBLE FOR SPAIX. : In Spain the disappearance of the nineteen-year-old King from the scene i would bring to the throne his little 'nephew, aged four, the eldest child of his sister, the late Princess of the 'Asturias, who died last year. This would necessitate another loiig regency, and trouble would certainly ensue concerning the disposal of the latter. For whereas it might appear natural that the principal guardian of the infant King should be his father, yet the latter, owing to his foreign birth and to his membership of the most reactionary branch of the Bouribon.9 of Naples, is so unpopular in • Spain that his appointment as regent would be out of tho question, and if the strict letter of the law and of the Constitution were complied with, Jthe reins of power would be vested in the hands of the only surviving Sister of the present King, the unmarried, twenty-two-year-old Infanta Mazde iTherese. That the present Spanish dynasty survived the sixteen years of "the minority of Don Alfonso XIII. was entirely due to the sagacity of Queen Christina, to the patriotic forbearance . of Canovas and to the l devotion and political skill of Sagasta. That it would live through another regency of .twelve years is extremely doubtful, indeed, well-nigh improbable. For Canovas and Sagasta are both dead, and Queen Christina would be debarred by the Constitution from resuming her former position at the tiller of the Spanish ship of state, even were the people willing to confide to her the task. Menaced by Carlism and even still "more by Republicanism, tho, growth of which is making enormous strides in ixie Iberian Peninsula, the present dynasty would be doomed in the event of the death of King Alfonso. COMPLICATIONS JN HOLLAND. It was but the other day that the Dutch Premier, Mr Kuyper, was publicly charged in the States General at Tho Hague with having initiated negotiations with the object of bringing the Netherlands witxiin the sphere of the German Empire as a member of ouo of the sovereign statgs forming the confederation known by that name. There are a number of people in Holland who are convinced that this is the only way of protecting their colonies in the Orient and also on this side of th© Atlantic from seizure by foreign Powers. This absorption of the 'Netherlands and of tho Dutch colonial ■empire by Germany would be hastened < — indeed, would become an acconiipliahed fact — were anything untoward !to happen to th,e young Queen of Hoi-' land, who has never recovered her • f health since her serious illness two ■ years ago, and who is still childless. ■ The next heir to the throne is the | Grand Duke of Saxe- Weimar, a, Ger•man sovereign prince, brought up as ia Prussian officer, and, failing him, jthe throne of the Netherlands would :go to his father's sister, Princess Henry of Beuss, formerly German Anibasea'dresa at Vienna, and to her eldest son, Prince Henry XXXII. of Reuss, a lieutenant in the German navy, stationed at Kiel.

Whether Great Britain and France would be willing to consent to the incorporation of Holland into the German Empire is a matter which has already given rise to much discussion. For there is no doubt that were Germany to secure possession of the principal seaports of Holland she would be placed within easy striking distance of the coasts of England and France, and therefore a standing menace to these two countries.! To America th© inclusion of the Netherlands in the Customs union of Germany, which is hostile to the trade and industry of this country, would prove a serious economic injury.

IN* ITALY ANP TURKEY. , King Victor Emmanuel's death just now would bring to the throne his ten months old boy, with the Duke of Aosta. as regent. Italy is honeycombed with socialism. The Republican element is very strong throughout /the penmsula, and the Bute of Aosta is iiothing like as popular as either the present King or either of his two predecessors. A regency long enough to .admit of the infant Prince of Pied- : HiCnt attaining his majority would be, jail things considered, very risky to the Crown, and the life, therefore, of the present King is of supreme importance, p.ot only to his dynasty > but also to Italy, and indeed to the peace of Europe

Jusfc what would happen &t Constantinople, were the Sultan £c share the fate of so many of his predecessors and succumb to Tiolenoe, no on© can toll. For his brother and heir, Prinoo Rechad, is aa elderly man of sixty,

who, owing to the Padishah's jealousy and suspicions, has been kept throughout his reign in such prison-like seclusion that no foreign diplomat, arid but few Turkish statesmen, have ever been permitted to have access to him. He is reported to be both fanatic and reactionary. But no reliance can be placed upon these rumours, which probably originate in the Sultan's entourage. In one word, Rechad's advent to the throne might mean a Moslem uprising against the Christians and the revival of the so-called Eastern Question in all its intensity, or it might spell the inauguration of a nev>-, more enlightened and happier era for the Ottoman Empire.

In Russia it is Grand Duke Michael, the brother of the Czar s who is entitled to the regency of the empire in the event of the death of Nicholas and the accession to the Crown of his eleven-months-old little boy. Grand Duke Michael is /credited with a stronger and more determined character, and less inclination towards liberalism than Emperor Nicholas, while the conciliatory role played by King Edward since his accession, to the throne, both in domestic and foreign politics, would render his disappearance from the scene at the present juncture something akin to an international calamity.

INTERNATIONAL CHESS BOAKD,

From this it will be saen how important is the place which all theß© foreign monarchs ' occupy on the chess board of international politics, how seriously the situation is liable to be affected by their disappearance, ©specially if the latter be of a sudden character and how little America as a great Power can afford to remain indifferent to eventualities of this kind. It is well to bear in mind that they may be sprung upon the public at any moment. The anuointed of the Lord, though some of them claim to be fashioned of a superior clay to our own, are, after all, but mortal, and a prey to all the ills to which their fellow creatures are subject. In fact, owing to their superior rank, and consequently more conspicuous position, they are exposed to dangers that do not fall to the lot of those of lesser degree, and are consequently regarded by insurance companies as to such an extent in the class of "bad risks," that in examining the political situation it is always well to take into account the possibility of their sudden death.