The Star. TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 1902.

Star (Christchurch), Issue 7331, 18 February 1902, Page 2

The Star. TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 1902.

CHEERFUL OPTIMISM. If the Boer assertion that 12,000 burghers remain in the field is to foe trusted', the end of the war may not be in sight yet. It is true that Mr Chamberlain at the luncheon given in his honour by the City of London, last week, .spoke as if the', war was approaching an end, but various, circumstances contribute to minimise the cheerful view taken by the Colonial Secretary. In the first place, there is the 'statement of the Boer prisoners, taken during Lord Kitchener's successful clearing operations, that 12,000 Boers remain om commando; secondly, there is the boast of Dr Leyds, that, if necessary^ the "burghers would be able to maintain the struggle for ben years; asid, thirdly, there is the capture of the Fraserburg convoy by Commandant Malan. It mayy of course, be possible to over-estimate the significance of the three matters to which we have referred. The Boers, it is notorious, do not always tell the truth, and their estimate of their strength ana.J' be purposely incorrect. It is pnobatole, further, that they themselves have no idea of their present numbers. For instance, the commandos operating in the Northern Transvaal could hardly bo expected to know the strength of the commandos fighting in the Orange River Colony or Cape Colony, and the difficulty of forming a' precise calculation is increased by the fact that the^-average Boer commando is a very elastic quantity. Again-, it would not do to place- much reliance on the assertions of Dr Leyds. An accomplished hand at bluffing, Leyds probably owes his present position to art extraorddlnary faculty for translating defeat into success, and painting' in ibrillianti colours incidents which under the brush of a more faithful artist would take a very sombre hue. But it would be unwise to overlook Malam's success. In a chart of South Africa published recently in the " Times," to illustrate the progress of the blockhouse system, the country was divided into three areas. The first of these indicated the "areas which have been totally cleared of the enemy, and in which it is possible for single horsemen to move without immediate fear of molestation " j the second consisted of " areas which have been practically cleared of the enemy 2 in which few supplies and no large concentrations of Bosrs are to be found" ; and the third was described as " the areas to which the Boer resistance is now mainly confined. As will be readily seen, these areas are sec. tions of the theatre of the war which are richest in supplies drawn from Kaffirs, are more remote from our railway system, and present the greatest topographical difficulties to the movements of our columns." It was in. the second of these areas in which Malan achieved his success last week, and he won it, moreover, with a force of 600 men. It is evident, therefore, that there was no justification for the belief that area 1 No. 2 was clear of "large concentrations." If the surmises of the British authorities on other important points are no nearer the mark, the outsider may be forgiven if he questions the optimistic views at present heldby certain British statesmen.