THE TRIPARTITE AGREEMENT.

Star (Christchurch), Issue 6072, 8 January 1898, Page 6

THE TRIPARTITE AGREEMENT.

COMMENTS BY THE HONG KONG PRESS. Papers which arrived in Sydney by the steamer Airlie from Hong Kong a few days ago contained much comment on the situation in China. The XHong Kong Press, of Dec. 2, says: — The news that Russia, Germany and France have agreed upon a joint ; policy, and that each is to ta^e a slice of territory, is surprising only by reason of its suddenness. The breaking up of China has been predicted for years past, and the events for the last few years have strengthened the popular disbelief in the stability of the existing Government. It was not generally anticipated, however, that the end was quite so near, or that it would be brought about in precisely the •way the new 3 published to-day would seem to indicate. We do not think that !the news is to be discredited in the main, no doubt it should be read with .some modification of detail. Germany has already taken possession of Kiaochau Bay and is likely to remain there, but the reiport that she is to annex the whole province of Shantung we should be inclined to regard as premature, the ; fact probably being that she simply intends, with the concurrence and •support of France and Russia, to make her influence predominant in the control and -development of the province, while leaving the native administration in operation -under German guidance. Russia is already predominant in Manchuria, and is rapidly becoming so in Korea, and in time, no doubt, those countries will become Russian in name and fact, but whether formal annexation is to be entered on immediately seems still problematical. As to France taking Fokien and Formosa, it is rather difficult to know what she could do with the first-named province, or how she would maintain the necessary force to hold it in subjection; while, with regard to Formosa, while the Chinese inhabitants of that island might possibly welcome any European Power as their masters, instead of Japan, it would be no light task to dispossess the latter Power by force, and she would hardly yield without a struggle, even to the combined pressure of Russia, Germany and France. It would seem, however, that a conflict between Russia and Japan cannot be long delayed, and. Germany and France have no doubt agreed to -""--ive support to Russia, France taking Formosa as her reward should Japan be crushed. LOOKING AFTER BRITISH INTERESTS. In the event of any breaking up of China the province of Kwangtung and the Yangtsze Valley should fall to the share of England. It is satisfactory to note that in the programme credited to the Tripartite Alliance neither of these regions is included — a fact which may, perhaps, be taken to indicate that the Powers concerned wish to carry out their designs without coming into direct conflict with British interests. If it be true that France is to have Fokien,' that would be a wedge interposed between our northern and southern i spheres of influence, and in that respect .would be unwelcome, which is possibly the chief reason why it has been selected, but the difficulties arising on that score maybe left to be dealt with when they arise. Although no official informatibn has been received in Hong Kong, so far as can be ascertained, as to the programme attributed to Russia, Germany and France, it has for some time past been understood that important developments might shortly be expected, and the fleet has, we hear, been warned to hold itself in readiness. That it will be called upon to do anything more than ■police duty for the protection of British interests is, however, improbable, as it is not likely England would go to war for the protection of China, and, however much Aye might sympathise with Japan, we are not called upon to fight her battles for her. If the programme attributed to the three Powers were carried out in its entirety it would not necessarily be prejudicial to our commercial interests, and our political interests would be better served by looking to our own developments and taking what we require for ourselves than by trying to put spokes in the wheels of our neighbours. HOW CHINA REGARDS THE SITUATION. What China may have to say as regards the disposition of her territory is a matter of small importance. Her extreme weakness is shown by the fact that in this hour of her extreme peril the veteran Liv Yung-fu, the, old Black Flag leader, has been called from his retirement, being regarded by the Chinese as their ablest warrior, because he gave the French a little trouble in guerilla warfare j amongst the mountain fastnesses of the I Tonkin border. It was Lin who went to Formosa to hold the island against the Japanese, and who distinguished himself by running away when the enemy approached. He has never given evidence of military capacity, and is now, we hear, a decrepit old man, almost bedridden and having to be carried in a litter when he wishes to move from place to place. Such is the man who has been selected to turn the Germans out of Kiaochau. A couple of gunboats have been sent to escort him to Canton from his home in Kwangsi.