THE INTERESTS AT STAKE.

Star (Christchurch), Issue 6071, 7 January 1898, Page 1

THE INTERESTS AT STAKE.

lIMPRESSIONS OF A. RETURNED COLONIST. Mr R. E. Gill, who returned to Sydney a few days ago after a business visit to the East extending over two years, has had 'opportunities, both in Japan and China, ■of taking notice of the trend of affairs in the East. In the course of conversation with a Herald representative he mentioned some facts that had come under his notice. Mr Gill left Kobe about the beginning of the month, and although the situation was then less fully developed than it is now,' there was a good deal of excitement. This was more particularly the case at Hongkong. At the end of November newß arrived at the <. British headquarters of a reported agreement on the part of Russia, Germany and France to make a united movement upon Corea. As an instance of. the stir caused by this intelligence Mr Gill states that 'while many of the military and naval officers were at a ball at Hongkong the word went round for the fleet to be got ready to leave at two hours' notice. On that night at least the situation was regarded as critical. The development that was feared did not take place, but both in commercial and diplomatic circles the impression remained that affairs looked black as far a3 peace interests were concerned. The feeling of the better-informed Chinese i^, Mr Gill thinks, in favour of British .protection. This applies more particularly to the residents of Hongkong and those part 3of the empire with which Britain has come more directly into cori'tact. The cultured Chinese does ..not regard the Englander as an interloper. He understands, if lie has seen anything of British government and contrasted it with local misgovernment, that under British protection he would lose nothing of his . dignities nor privileges. He would still < be a mandarin or an " honourable." As a matter of fact there is more than one Chinese 'possessing this latter distinction in the Hongkong Assembly. The more progressive Celestial of the upper classes knows that ' English rule would mean justice. He knows that German or Russian rule would mean something very like despotism. He realises, at least in some cases, that the traditionally exclusive policy of the Chinese Empire means stagnation, and that if Western civilisation is to come in it would be better for it to come in through an English channel. Mr Gill instanced the case of a Chinese of some rank with whom he had had a conversation previous to leaving for Sydney. This man said that what China wanted was a state of affairs resembling that in India. She wanted some of the benefits of English protection without the disadvantages. This utterance is, Mr Gill thinks, the expression of a pretty general feeling. Mr Gill spent some tini6 on the mainland, and saw something of what was going on there. The complimentary terms which can be x applied with truth to the better portion of the race at Hongkong hardly apply to the people'j in the inland districts. The continental Chinese does not want the interference either of England or of any other country. He hates all " foreign devils," and" boasts of a kind of patriotism which might be. admirable if it were not based on ignorance, superstition and prejudice. "In the event of a scrimmage," said Mr Gill, " China would lean towards England." A not unimportant factor in the case is the Chinese Minister, Li Hung Chang. It is a generally known fact, Mr Gill said, that Li Hung Chang's tendencies are distinctly English.; The cable message received a few days ago to the effeCc that he had asked England to the protectorate over the Yang-tse-Kiang River may not be exact to the letter, but there is very ' probably some truth in it. Such, an action ■would be consistent with what is generally accepted as the Chinese Minister's predilections in favour of Great Britian. Of course it would not be advisable to presume on any supposed friendship on his part, but it may be said with even more probability of Li Hung Chang than of the people that in the event of hostilities he would incline ■ towards.England. Speaking of the defence forces of China,

Mr Gill said that as far as be could see the country could not be reckoned with as a military power. She has an array, but its management is corrupt and the discipline third : rate. She possesses a navy, but, as was proved in the recent war, it is hopelessly inefficient. It it? the attitude of the Kuropean Powers that constitutes the danger. England will not retire f rem the position she occupies on the West, 1 or Canton River. She'is not likely to let her.self lose what influences she has in the valley of the Yang-tse-Kiang. Englancl is the most influential European Power on the coast south of Shanghai, and her trade with China as regards that part of the country is considArable. Any. aggressive movement towards that part will, he thinks, be repelled, if neces3ary,,by force. The feeling on this question, Mr Gill states, is very decided among all classes with whom he came m contact. ' ;• ' ! Speaking of the attitude of Russia, Mr Gill said that the Russians apparently wanted a port that would -not. bo frozen over in winter, and bad turned their eyes towards Port Arthur. Theßussian element was comparatively strong, towards the north, particularly at Tien-tsin. Russia was, however, handicapped by the fact that hey navy compared unfavourably with that of England, and the same remark applied to Germany. Russia, however, could pour troops into China overland, and as there could be no dotibt that she had designs on Chinese territory, if. she Avere not actually, as raauy people thought, bent on the dismemberment of the Empire, the situation was not a trifling one. *; As regards Japan, her chief interest was centred in Corea. She was a more warlike nation than China, and would not submit § to any aggression in Corea or Formosa. She would not stand by while China was being broken up, as in that cofe'j h 3 subsidy owing to her would pfobabJy not be paid. She would go hand in hand with England in the event of war. It would be an interesting experiment, Mr Gill thought, if a Japanese force came into collision with a European one. Japan prided herself on being a military Power, but her victory over China was no test. The people were brave enough, and were in the mood, after their recent success, to resent dictation from any quarter.