THE WEEK.

Observer, Volume 7, Issue 348, 8 August 1885, Page 8

THE WEEK.

Last week the Mahdi Nyas reported dead, this week one of his most important adherents is said to have died also. It is reported that Osman Digna is no more. Of course it may not be true, but there are no special reasons why false news should now be sent out from the Soudan. If the great leaderof the Red Sea Coast tribes is dead it can hardlj fail to make confusion worse confounded in the country. The weight of so important a partizan raighfc indeed have served to establish the influence of a successor to the Mahdi ; without his influence it is hard to believe that any single leader can obtain supremacy over the others who are certain to arise. If Osman Digna is really dead the collapse of the Soudan rising is almost certain. But while this may be so, it does not follow that anyone can take advantage of it now. Britain certainly does not want the Soudan. Egypt cannot manage the mouths of the Nile, and will have small strength to spare for expeditions in the direction of its source. General Gordon's opinion was that Turkey should take possession, and, as might be expected, the advice has much to recommend it. She would most likely undertake the task if invited, and she would meet with less opposition than any other Power. It is true that many other rules would be more satisfactory than that of Turkey, but perhaps no other holds out the same prospect of something like a settled and moderately civilised kind of Government for the Soudan.

Nothing definite is yet settled about the Zulficar Pass it appears. The negotiations still go on, but they do so in a vague and lazy manner, which is not satisfactory. If ifc is true that Russia claims the right to forbid Afghanistan to occupy the Pass if she withdraws from it, it is a sign of something wrong. Either Russia wishes to gH^ time in the hope of Ministerial changes in England, or she still has vague hopes of being able to bully England and coerce Afghanistan. I should imagine the first the more likely alternative. There is something utterly unreasonable in the demand that if Russia retires from, the Pass, Afghanistan should not occupy it. Russia will only retire because she can establish no plausible claim to hold it ; and if the Pass is not Russia's it must of necessity belong to Afghanistan. The hitherto unheard of dematid that a country shall not take steps to render its own frontier defensible could, not be made even by Russia, I believe, unless the object was mere delay. As a ground of quarrel it would be too transparent, md therefore too risky. But that Russia hopes much from a Liberal Government if the coming elections should secure one, may well be credited. She cannot fully understand that even a Liberal Government cannot go so far with her as she wishes ; at all events she concludes not unreasonably, that a Liberal Government would concede more to her demands than a Conservative Cabinet dare do.

Meanwhile the work of establishing byconsent something like the scientific frontier advocated by Lord Beaconsfield goes on. General Eoberts has been appointed to the Command-in-Chief in succession to General Stewart, and no doubt he is so with special reference to these works. Bailway material is being concentrated close to the frontier in case it should be desirable to push on the line to Candahar, and two entrenched camps are being formed well in advance of our own frontier within Afghanistan. All these precautions and preparations are so manyguarantees for peace. Eussia desires increased territory and she covets India, but she does not desire to rush into war when all the chances of war will be unfavourable to herself. Yet I cannot feel at all certain that the risk has quite passed away even for the present. The leave of absence granted to M. Giers for two months may really be no more than it appears. On the other hand*' it may be far more significant. Giers was always looked upon as the advocate of peace and moderation in the Russian administration. He was no favorite with the militaryparty, and it is at least possible that his leave of absence means the triumph of that party. If so events will soon declare themselves. I have pointed out before that if anything is to be done on the Afghan frontier it must be done not later than the end of August ; and while I do not greatly expect any movement on Russia's part in the face of our own preparations 1 believe they are still within the range of possibilities, and will remain so for another month at least. After that it will be too late for hostilities and Russia's pacific assurances may be accepted, not because they are given, but because they can hardly be broken this year.

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The new High Commissioner of British New Guinea has been trying, not very successfully, to bring Vitoria to

•coincide in his financial views as to the neAV dependency. He evidently hoped to train the supporb of Victoria to something more than, tie was likely to obtain elsewhere, owing to the active part she had taken in the annexation question. In this he seems to have been mistaken. Mr Service may not repent of the prominent part taken by Victoria in urging annexation, but he evidently wishes to stop where he is. He would give no pledge as to an increased contribution on account of expenses of Government, and he declined to deal with the suggestion of a loan from the Colonies until he knew what the Home Government proposed to do. In all this-*ke was no doubt right. Had Victoria not been quite so urgent a year ago, no such proposals would ever have been made ; b-it a bargain is a bargain, and the Imperial Government, even when, acting on the suggestion of a Colony or a group of Colonies, must not expect to cast all pecuniary liability off herself and upon them. The answer of Victoria will I have no doubt, be that of any other Colony to which Sir Peter Soratohley may apply. We are all willing to carry out our agreement as to the cost of New Guinea, but we are none of us Avilling to do more than this unless it is shown that it is fair we should | <lo so. I The Jauet Niccol has returned with her earo-o of delegates, and these gentleman seem to bave made very good use of their time. The report they make is tolerably exhaustive, and more than tolerably favourable to the prospects of New Zealand enterprise in the J South Sea Islands. It is clear that the field although partly occupied is not closed against our trade, and even the present occupants hold bo strong position as against us. The result of j Avhat the representatives of the Chambers of Commerce have seen and heard is that they strono-ly urge the formation of large trading companies to develope our commerce with the Pacific groups. They seem to think that three companies would do the work better than oue, but unless there are some very extraordinary circumstances in the case, I take leave to doubt this. The proposals made last year by Sir Julius Yogel seem to me to meet the case fairly, and all that we have gained by the action of the House in rejecting his Bill, is that a couple of years have been lost and a good deal of expense incurred in finding out little more than the Colonial Treasurer told the House then. It is <jeitainly possible to be over suspicious and <$rer cautious at times. The Government proposal to refer the East and West Railway proposals to a Select Committee, has been rejected by a majority of seven votes. I think this, a serious mistake from every point of view. It was probably done lather as a blow at the Government than for any other reason, but it cannot fall to embitter the feeling between the North Island and a large part of the South. Otago men, indeed joined for the most part against the proposal, but this will not at all prevent them afterwards joining Canterbury, Westland, and Nelson, to prevent some great public work desired by this Island. I shall not feel any surprise to see an attempt made ere long to stop the progress of onr own Trunk line, as a matter of reprisal for the refusal even to consider that which the South Island people thought so important to them. The native lands proposals have been referred to a committee, and on this understanding the second reading of the Bill was agreed to. I incline to the idea that this means the end of the measure for this year. 1 don't think it need be regretted. The plan was too fanciful and sentimental altogether, and would work far more evil 'than good if it were put in practice. My own impression is that wejhaveforyears looked on the Native Land question from a wrong point of view. It is no object whatever eitner to the settlers or Maoris to cnex>k the sale of native lands to Europeans. The sooner the Maori owner gets rid of all but sufficient reserves for his own use the better it will be for himself. As for the evil of alloAving it to be sold in large blocks to speculators it is for the most part mere nonsense. In the interior, where nearly all this land is situated, it cannot be bought to any advantage, except in large blocks. If the speculators do make a large profit— and this is "by no means always the case—they also run a heavy risk which no small holder would be able to run. The idfc© of cutting distant lands into small farms -and then settling small farmers looks well on paper, but in reality it is but a dream. The small farmers refuse to go there, and they do well to refuse. At this moment they could o-et from private speculators many thousands of acres, better situated, for less money, and on quite as easy terms as Government could ■nossibly offer them on behalf of the Maoris Yet there is no demand. That in course of time a demand will spring up I don t doubt, but by that time tlie speculator will get no more than very reasonable interest on his•outlay. __„ __■ Professor Rice has been appearing in Wellington in conjunction with Wash Norton s Merrymakers. " I belong to the < profesh.' Can I go in without paying?" enquired a seedy individual •of the box-keeper at the Opera House the other night. " No, but you can pay without going in," said the box-keeper.