The Timaru Herald. TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 1940 German-Soviet Relations

Timaru Herald, Volume CXLVIII, Issue 21815, 19 November 1940, Page 4

The Timaru Herald. TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 1940 German-Soviet Relations

THERE has been no official revelation of details of the discussions which took place in Berlin last ■week between M. Molotov and Hitler. Nevertheless, Hie fact that the Soviet Prime Minister took the exceptional course of travelling outside his own domain for a meeting is evidence enough that for the present there has been no serious deterioration in relations betwen Germany and the Soviet Union. Nor is there any special reason why there should be as yet. The Balkan cauldron has not boiled over and the Axis in the meantime has succeeded in localising the war between Italy and Greece, a wai which Italy probably thought would never break out. In studying the relations between Germany and Russia the first point to keep in mind is that Soviet policy is essentially realist. This, of course, is merely a euphemistic way of saying that as long as the Soviet can reap advantage from friendship with Germany there is not much likelihood of the existing understanding being breached. In the year that has elapsed since the conclusion of the Soviet-German pact which surprised the world in August, 1939, there have been many rumours abroad of tension and friction, both political and economic, between Berlin and Moscow. But this unnatural accord has successfully withstood the strain of what amounts to the partition of Eastern Europe which began with the establishment of a common frontier between the Reich and the Soviet Union in Poland, and was carried to its conclusion by the dismemberment of Rumania. A numerical statement of the mutual gains of Berlin and Moscow in these transactions reveals that the Soviet’s annexations, including Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina, added about 21,600,000 inhabitants to the Soviet 1 Union, while the Reich s population gain was some 1,000,000 fewer than that. Germany was forced to sacrifice her advanced outposts in the East by withdrawing and summoning home several hundred thousand German nationals who had settled there centuries ago. Staiin gained also through having the Soviet Union’s frontiers, except in the case of Western Poland, advanced to the borders of the former Russian Empire; and in the case of Eastern Galicia i and Northern Bukovina, Russia’s advance meant the acquisition of territory which had not belonged to the Czars. So it can be seen that Stalin, the political realist, has fared well on the material side through his agreement with Hitler. In addition, he has had the opportunity of consolidating the Soviet’s position in the Baltic by bringing the former small Baltic States into a condition of virtual vassalage under the Sickle and Hammer. Political and territorial gains have their importance, but where the war is concerned the economic relationship between the Soviet and the Reich is of greater importance and it is likely that the discussions between M. Molotov and Hitler were more concerned with economics and trade than anything else. The probability is that the conversations centred about the trade agreement signed in February of this year. It has been stated that these negotiations are being carried out under terms calling for periodic consultation on all outstanding problems. A new factor ip German-Soviet economic relations, the full significance of which it is yet difficult to assess, is the Soviet trade expansion drive in the Balkans, territory hitherto considered the special preserve of the Rome-Berlin Axis. The Soviet trade agreement made with Bulgaria last January, a first step in this direction, was followed by a similar agreement with Yugoslavia in May. Then at the end of August there was an agreement between Hungary and the Soviet under which Hungary undertook to supply Russia with river barges and railroad equipment in return for minerals and certain other rflw materials. However, the ultimate point of interest for the British Empire and its Allies is the extent to which the Soviet Union may be prepared to help Germany repair her economic deficiencies. This was discussed recently in a memorandum issued by the University of Birmingham which gave a thorough analysis of the possibilities of trade expansion between Germany and the Soviet. The conclusion reached is that the supplies which the Soviet Union can deliver to Germany depend chiefly on whether the Soviet Government is guided by purely economic considerations, or whether it is prepared to submit to economic sacrifices in pursuit of political objectives, the attainment of which would call for closer co-operation between the two countries. The Economist believes, however, that “political events in the past year do not point in the direction of closer co-operation between the two countries. It becomes more and more clear that realism is the aim of Soviet policy, and this excludes for the time being economic sacrifices on the part of Russia to help Germany.” It is clear that M. Molotov and Hitler would have had much to discuss within this ample framework.