The Timaru Herald MONDAY, OCTOBER 14, 1940 The Axis and The Balkans

Timaru Herald, Volume CXLVIII, Issue 21784, 14 October 1940, Page 6

The Timaru Herald MONDAY, OCTOBER 14, 1940 The Axis and The Balkans

IT is plain that Hitler and Mussolini are in a state of doubt as to the move they should make next and this hesitancy can only mean that they are encountering unanticipated difficulties. In the past few weeks they have sustained significant moral reverses and suffering as they have done in this way they are probably finding that supposedly catspaw nations are not answering the word of command as readily as had been hoped. The thwarting of the German invasion plan, together with the hold-up of the Italian advance in North Africa, have probably made it necessary for the Axis to launch a diversion which would increase the difficulty of Britain’s present task, but new partners are necessary if diversions are to be effective. A short time ago it seemed as if pressure was being brought upon Spain to induce her collaboration, or at least acquiescence in an assault upon Gibraltar. But since nothing has yet happened the inescapable conclusion is that Spain has not been immediately amenable to suggestion.

That Germany has now made a move in the Balkans is, perhaps, evidence that a new strategy is being attempted. However, it is early to assume that the virtual occupation of Rumania means that the next Axis blow is going to fall upon the Balkans. It may be that Germany is chiefly concerned with assuring that the output of the Rumanian oilfields shall be hers. On the other hand, of course, this shifting of troops may mean that a genuine Axis attempt at the subjugation of the Balkans is going to be made. If so, it is impossible at the moment to anticipate developments, for Soviet Russia is the unknown factor in the situation. It is reported that Britain, Turkey, Russia, Bulgaria and Greece are conferring, and it has been announced from Ankara that if the German move foreshadows a Balkan advance by Germany across Syria to Egypt the road will be guarded by 2,000,000 Turkish bayonets.

Should the Axis be determined, however, to seek domination of the Balkans for the purpose, among others, of obtaining Mediterranean bases for action against Britain, Greece would certainly be attacked, but that country is united solidly in determination to fight against any violation of her integrity or interference with her government. If Greece were menaced she would be assured of the goodwill of Turkey and more than the goodwill of Britain. Bulgaria seems so completely under Axis influence that the reported statement that Bulgaria is associated with possible defensive anti-Axis discussions requires explanation.

Turkey, while unquestionably sympathetic to Britain, will finally base her policy upon that of the Soviet Government, and Soviet policy towards a Balkan upheaval will be determined by the Soviet view of Britain. G. E. R. Gedye, writing recently in the Yew York Times, said: “To-day the Soviet Union holds the key to Balkan developments. How that key will be used really depends on how far Sir Stafford Cripps is empowered to convince M. Molotov that a clean sweep has been made of appeasers and their masters, the City and all they represented.”