The Timaru Herald TUESDAY, JANUARY id. 1940 Will Germany Strike?

Timaru Herald, Volume CXLVIII, Issue 21553, 16 January 1940, Page 4

The Timaru Herald TUESDAY, JANUARY id. 1940 Will Germany Strike?

will, of course, be excellent reasons lor the renewed defence precautions which are beingtaken by Belgium and Holland, and it may be assumed also that the two countries, as far as possible, are acting in concert, for were the position otherwise the task of the Nazi High Command, if it decided upon Invasion of one or other country, would be greatly simplified. It seems fairly well established how that the day had actually been fixed in November for the invasion of Holland, but oh the eve of the march Belgium announced that she would not submit, to having her main line of defence turned by an advance south of the Rhine and across the Dutch Brabant. Once this fact was known in Berlin the invasion was called off. As it was in November, the imminent threat is probably still to Holland, either as a direct objective, or as an easing of the way into Belgium. Although the Nazis would have no scruples in the matter if it suited their ends, they would no doubt prefer to escape the odium of attacking countries whose neutrality they have promised to respect, but it so happens that delicate questions of international morality will concern them even less now than they did in the past year or so.

Hitler commands his following in Germany because he has been able to feed bis people on bloodless victories. No more of these are obtainable, so he must strive now to obtain the other kind. It is obvious that he cannot do that by allowing conditions on the western front to remain as they are at present. Since a direct assault on the Maginot Line appears to be out of (he question as a first move, it is necessary for the Nazi High Command to consider alternative ways of initiating a war of movement and a dash through to the coast of Belgium and Holland looks to" be the only alternative. Both countries are prepared to resist invasion, but Holland is unfortunate in having a great irregular frontier covered inadequately by natural defences. Interior defence would be provided by flooding, but it is held by ohe authority that even if the Dutch resolved to flood their main industrial areas they would still not be able to check the violent attack by shock troops which Germany would probably deliver. “Even at the cost of industrial suicide,” write “Strategicus” in the Spectator, “it is difficult to think that Holland could gain more, than a respite for part of her country; and she could not keep Germany out of an important part of the coastal area for long.”

The reason why Holland's situation is so precarious can be simply explained. England is the first enemy of the Nazis, and it would be hoped that a successful attack upon Holland would provide air and submarine bases much nearer the English coast. It is realised that England is the source of supply from which will be drawn the resources in munitions and men necessary to smash the West Wall. It is the British navy, too, which will bring the resources of the United States to Eranee. It would be hoped that an intense campaign against the munition centres of England might disorganise the production of aeroplanes, shells, artillery and the training of men. Further, repeated attacks on naval bases might keep the navy at sea, where the ships would become easier prey for submarines operating from Dutch bases. This seems the easiest course for Nazi strategy to follow if Germany is to wage an offensive war, and that there is possibility of the struggle taking this course is virtually admitted by the preparations of Belgium and Holland. There is evidence enough at any rate to justify the belief that the relatively quiescent days on the western front are nearing their end.