The Timaru Herald WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 25, 1912. NATAL RIVALRY.

Timaru Herald, Volume XCIV, Issue 14655, 24 January 1912, Page 4

The Timaru Herald WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 25, 1912. NATAL RIVALRY.

The detemiination of Italy, Russia, and Germany to add greatly to their naval expenditure will upset some prophecies, and should provide Mr W. T. Stead with material for some further articles on " The Lunacy of the Nations," which recently he made his theme. Only a few months ago Mr Archibald Hurd, v.-ritino- in the " Fortnightly Beview'' on "The Prospect of Naval Economy," stated: ,: We are within sight of some relief from the present costly competition in naval armaments. • . . Whichever party be in power nest spring, the Navy Estimates for 1912-13 will show a reduction, though not a very large reduction, over those of the present financial year- The decline in expenditure is inevitable and unavoidable. . ... The pace in naval competition is set by one country—Germany.' At present there is ground for believing that there will be no expansion of German naval power in the immediate future, and if this expectation is realised, the British Navy Estimates have this year reached the highest point' to which they will attain during the present generation." The expectation in regard to Germany has not been realised. It was announced the other day that the second largest naval power had determined to build three capital ships yearly instead of two, and now the London \ '"Daily Telegraph" claims to have information that the Ger- [ man shipbuilding programme for the ensuing year will mean "a recrudescence of rivalry in a more intense form." Germany's contemplated expenditure under the 1000 law. it is stated, has been doubled, and particulars arc \ given of the new ships that are to be built. Already the German decision has. had its effect on Italy and Russia. Ttnly has unexpectedly decided to build two more Dreadnoughts, and i Russia is proposing to spend

liny million pounds within the nest five years on new naval bases on the Baltic, and an increased shin building programme which includes four supercruisers. The question now is, what will Great Britain do? The new First JLord of the Admiralty, 3lr Winston Churchill, made it clear, at the tinia of his arrtointmeut, that he hoped to be able to oii'i-ci some reduction of the j-samntes. Referring to this prnsoeet on November 29th, "The Times" said: "What we are concerned to learn is the way in which the reduction can be carried out without lessening the margin of safety. As to the .'-upbuilding programme also, if there are to be comparatively battleships, there will be a demand for more cruisers and torpedo craft, while a further development in design would only be m accordance with the practice of the progressive Boards of Admiralty of the last few years." But since Germany is resolved to press the pace so hard, ilr Churchill may not think it safe to economise on battleships- On the other hand, the large increase in' the Russian programme, and the exertions which France is making i 0 bring her fleet up to the highest standard, may be considered a sufficient offset to the redoubled energies of Germany. If that is found to bo the case, Englishmen will derive some solid benefit from thosa " ententes " which some of them arc now disposed to regard aa mei-eiy dangerous entanglements*