WHEAT SLUMP.

Timaru Herald, Volume XIIIC, Issue 14221, 11 June 1910, Page 3

WHEAT SLUMP.

AUSTRALIA LOSES £ J ,000,000.

("Argus.'") In view <>} the great decline in tlie wheat market (hiring the hist few weeks the position in which the Australian tanners stand deserves attention. The matter may be considered from two points : first, with reference to the stocks of this season's wheat; and, second, the prospects of the industry. As regards the. present season, the tanners have sold as much or nearly as much as they generally do in "the earlier months of the year, but as the last harvest was a record their stocks are at present in the aggregate much larger than usual at the beginning of June. The position mav bo summarised jn round figure* as'follows:— Bushels. Commonwealth wheat crop 82,000,000 for 12 mouths 28^000,000 Surplus available for export for whole season 54.500,000 \\heat and flour alreadv shipped ; 37,000,000 Balance still available for shipment. 17.500.000 lie quantity alreadv shiupod (takiim the middle of last December as a start" ing point) is not small, and it has only been exceeded twice previously in the course ot a full year, namely, in 1004 and in 1900. This season, however, very nearly the same total has been reached m less than half the period. Tlie high prices ruling early this year have made the return a handsome one, the value of the exports alreadv made bemg over £7,000,000 sterling. " The value of the remaining 17* •million bushels out of the Australian exportable surplus has. however, been greatly depreciated, the difference on tins quantity being probably at least a million sterling. In addition there is a depreciation on the stocks held for Australian consumption during the second half of the year, so that the total depreciation of farmers' stocks is considerably over a million. It is, however, to ho borne in mind that the return from what they actually sold was exceptionally good; and the total result of the disposal of the whole eron, including the sale of present stocks at the reduced prices, will still be highly profitable. There is a disposition in many quarters Lo blame the farmer* for holding so much, instead of selling more fully than they did, when high prices were obtainable. The market i'or soma time past, however, has been j a peculiarly difiicult one to gauge, and | if tlie records of former seasons are examined it will be found that movements during the lirst half of the vear have sometimes been upward and sometimes downward. I\*o rule has pre-' vailed, though on general considerations the danger is obvious of refusing high prices on the chance., of obtaining still higher figures. The farmers how- ! HVer. do not entirely regulate their policy as regards holding by the price immediately obtainable, but after the early months of the year they are largely guided by the stain of tho" weather at various periods. If the autumn msd winter are wet, thorp is little or no inducement to hang on to their stocks, biri. if « rather dry or doubtful winter is sueee*:*<ltd by f l'"y weather in September and October, xn t iidt the question of the succeeding harvest becomes problematical,- the farmers become stiff holders.

Even at 8/3, or a little under, the cultivation of wheat cives a fair return to the cultivator if the season lie n reasonably favourable one, while the Victorian farmer has often had to accept less than 3/- per bushel in Melbourne.