THURSDAY, JANUARY 26, 1882.

Timaru Herald, Volume XXXVI, Issue 2293, 26 January 1882, Page 2

THURSDAY, JANUARY 26, 1882.

It takes one's breath away to behold the rapidity of Messrs Joubert and Twopeny'B movements. Within the last forty-eight hours or ,bo the ground on which they arc to build their International Industrial Exhibition has but been granted them, and yet we are gravely assured that a very large building is to be placed thereon, the exhibits from Great Britain, Australia, the United States, Europe, New Zealand, etc., are to come to hand, to be unpacked, arranged and classified, and all this is to be done m the short space of a little over two months, Messrs Joubert and Twopeny baviDg given out they intend opening their world's 'fair not later than the 10th of April next. Well, we hope all this work will be accomplished m the time, but we confess to having doubts on the point. If done, and well done, it will be a wonderful instance of well directed, unflagging energy on the part of the spirited entrcpencurs, and a testimony, not often met with m colonial life, that quickness m the despatch of business is an art not entirely lost amongst colonials. The building itself being of humble, easily obtainable, and easily worked up materials — wood and iron — can of course be run up m the time. An inside skeleton of wood, and an outside covering of hard, cold-looking, vertical sheets of galvanized iron, are not exactly the materials one would choose to give beauty to ii building or to raise feelings of awe at the splendour and perfectness of an architectural dream. The erection designed for Hagley Park does not, of course, pretend to be m keeping with the beautiful things to be exhibited m its' interior. However ugly it may be — and it cannot fail to be hideous — it will serve the purpose of its architects admirably, that is to say it will keep out wind and rain, and that is all that can be expected from it. Though the, building will probably be finished prior to the 10th of April, we should have liked to have seen more time given to prepare exhibits forßhow. If the exhibition of British, American, and other foreign goods was the main object of the promoters, then probably the eight or nine weeks to the opening of the show might be sufficient, as the exhibitions lately held at Melbourne and elsewhere will probably supply most of the articles, time not allowing of any frcah goods to arrive from the .European industrial markets. The exhibition, though, of British and other foreign goods very useful, very instructive, and very interesting as such a show must needs be, should not by any means be the entire aim and object of

;he gathering. We. know pretty well fo what the British, American, and Euro- gi fiean workmen can produce. Recent ex- hi liibitioufi m various parts of the world ol iemonstrate that they are masters m A the several callings to which they have al set their brains or their hands. We b admire their skill, and the beauty and v perfectnesa of their creations, and go A away bemoaning our hurd fate we have ci not the money wherewith to purchase o the lovely, artistic things. If the aim t of the Christchurch Exhibition be to t exhibit to the gaze of us colonists the d trade excellencies of European or o American manufactures, then the affair v degenerates into a beautiful Bhow, a 1 bazaar where the most costly specimens of art and manufacture can be bought, a whore the exhibitors are iv the position i of shopkeepers, and where the public i> go as buyers or as spectators to satisfy t an idle but pardonable curiosity. 1 The Exhibition, to our mind, should ! aim at something altogether different > to its being a gigantic arcade full of < I stalls loaded with beautiful and costly < goods. We know what to expect to soe ' from the workshops of the world, but we do not know what to expect from the diligence, taste, and ability of the artisans of New Zealand, and are still much m the dark aa to the mineral and other resources of the country. The forthcoming International Exhibition should be held quite as much with the object of drawing out the skill of the colonial workman, and as a means of exhibiting the resources of the country, as for showing foreign-made articles of use and fancy. From the shortness of the notice given, however, of this Exhibition, we fear that the colony will appear somewhat at a disadvantage. The time is altogether too limited for artisans and firms of manufacturers to turn out any particular speciality. We shall see, probably, what we saw at the local industrial exhibitions which have recently been held at several of the chief towns, — Tiuiaru excepted, — but little new. The Christchurch, Dunedin, Ashburton, Invercargill and Nelson exhibitions were extremely creditable, and showed the capabilities and resources of the province or district. An international exhibition should not only focus, as it were, these laudable local efforts into one centre, but it should show something better, something m advance of the local aspiration towards taste m art and design and skill m execution. Whilst ardently wishing to see such onward improvement, we much fear we shall not do so, owing to the very hurried manner the Christchurch Exhibition has been brought about. * As harvest is now pretty general throughout the colony, it may be of some interest to glance at the prospects before agriculturists for the present season, especially so as grave doubts have been expressed as to the probability of the New Zealand harvest of 1881-2 being such a good one for growers as was predicted earlier iv the season. Passing by for a while any considerations respecting the estimated yield of this colony, we may go at once into the question of supply and demand, on the fluctuations of which all calculations relating to our own prospects must be based j and, for all ordinary purposes, it may be presumed that the United Kingdom rules the one factor — that of demand; while America exercises a very material influence on the other — that of supply. It behoves us then, m order to arrive at an approximate value, to ascertain for ourselves what proportion of the existing breadstuffs of. the world the markets of the United Kingdom will need before we can make any reliable deduction as to the prices that will have to be paid by Home buyers for the surplus food of other countries, and returns recently published enable us to do thia with a great degree of certainty. The requirements of the United Kingdom for the current year are estimated at 25,000,000 quarters of wheat, of which she herself can only contribute twofifths, or 10,000,000 quarters. The needs of England alone, for this yeai then, will be represented by the enormous deficit of food supply of 15,000,00(1 quarters, for which she must relj entirely on foreign supplies, and it is the strain, greater or less, put upon foreign countries to make up this deficiency, that gives the value to what they have to sell. We may now turn our attention to the consideration of the sources on which the population of the United Kingdom arc wholly dependent for a greater part of their daily bread, and first and foremost amongst these is America. The competition amongst the wheat producing countries of the world to supply this great demand on the part of England alone has brought America to the fore, both m the art ol growing wheat and m devising facilities of cheap and expeditious transport, and it is a proof of the depth of her enterprise that, within the five yearß ending with 1880, she contributed considerably more than one half to tht necessities of the Mother Country. Out of a total of 68,000,000 quarters required during that period America alone shipped 37,000,000 quarters, the highest average having been 10,000,000 quarters m 1879, m round numbers. This brings us, naturally enough, to the question, " What can America do this year ?" and hero again we arc enabled to make fairly sure calculations. The whole crop of the Uniteil States for the current season is reckoned at 50,000,000 quarters, or 400,000,000 bushels, a gross return much under the average of former years. Of this enormous quantity the greater part of course will be needed to feed the Americans themselves, and to furnish them with seed for next season, and we may sum these requirements up before going further. The population of the United States is roundly estimated at fifty millions, and the quantity of corn food consumed by the Anglo-Saxon race m computed at six and a quarter bushels per head of the population per annum. In America, however, they grow many other food staples which are largely consumed, and, to be on the safe side, some allowance must be made for this fact. Suppose, then, we allow each head of the population five bushels only, we find that for food purposes alone, the United States will need a good deal more than half of their wheat for their own consumption. Now we come to the question of 6eed. The land that will bo under wheat m America next year will be about thirty-five million acres, and at leant from fifty to sixty million bu«hels will bo required

for seed, which, added to the food total, gives a gross quantity of 310,000,000 bushels out of a probable 400,000,000 of crop as the requirements of the Americans themselves ; leaving an available surplus, on paper, of 90,000,000 bushels, or 11,250,000 quarters. It is more than possible, however, that the American wheat crop has been overestimated ; it generally turns out short of the predicted quantity, and therefore the Burplus available for export from the United States may be approximately set down at ten million quavters, of which the greater part will find its way to the markets of the United Kingdom. We may now turn to otUer countries and see what supplies can be drawn from them. In the five years before alluded to, the total shipments wade to he Home markets from Russia, Canada, India, and the minor wheat-growing States amounted to 31,000,000 quarters, or an average of a little over 6,000,000 quarters yearly, and there is no direct evidence that this average is likely to be increased this year. The logical deduction clearly is, then, that New Zealand will have a very fair opportunity this season of disposing of its surplus wheat to advantage m the world's market, both on the ground that it will be needed, — for it must be borne m mind that we have not alluded to the probable requirements of other densely populated European States — and also for the fact that, for merit, New Zealand wheat stands high m the estimation of English millers. Reasoning as we have done brings us face to face with our own affairs and outlook. What surplus are we likely to have for export ? Let us consider. The estimated yield of wheat for the whole colony is put down at about eight and a half million bushels, and the population is 533,000 soula, including natives. We shall need, then, say 3,000,000 bushels for our own consumption and a further 750,000 bushels for seed, leaving us with a surplus for export of four and three-quarter millions, or, m round numbers, four million bushels, equal to just half a million quarters. Late Home advices state that the shipments of American wheat were so great towards the close of the past year, a quantity equal to the whole of our surplus having been despatched within a fortnight, that the " visible supply" — that is, the quantity known to be m dealers' and speculators' hands, and including that stored m granaries against the markets — 'had decreased so low as 20,000,000 bushels, and that the cargoes afloat for the United Kingdom were unprecedentcdly large — two and a half million quarters. The fact that such an enormous quantity of breadatuffs being on the water had not exercised nearly the depressing effect on the markets that might have been expected, and, m view of the lowness of foreign stocks, there is little likelihood of values receding to any great extent. The Victorian surplus is calculated at from 80,000 to 100,000 tons of wheat, an average, say, of three and a half million bushels, and m that market, which is as much a reflex of the Home markets as ours is, prices aye hardening, and the export demand is good. It is more than probable, then, that an active demand may arise for colonial breadstuffa, and that the prices now quoted on the London market, viz., 52s per imperial quarter, may be advanced upon ere long. Narrowing our observations down to our own district, we cannot consider the prospects before growers to be by any means of a gloomy character. Although the continued unfavorableness of the season has undoubtedly done much to diminish returns m most parts, we are still of opinion that the general average of the season's operations will not be so poor as might be imagined. From inspection wo arc of opinion that the gross yield of wheat will run about twenty-two bushels per acre, and there is every indication of prices being remunerative. Cbristchurch quotations are at four shillings to four and twopence for the new crop, and very near these figures should rule here. If our farmer friends will permit us to advise them we would strongly urge them to sell early, if they can sell well, and if anything like four shillings to four shillings and threepence is offering to close the bargain and not wait for an indefinite time for any further rise that may take place.