UNITED STATES BALLOT.

Taranaki Herald, Volume LXV, Issue 145941, 26 September 1917, Page 7

UNITED STATES BALLOT.

PRECAUTIONS TAKEN. IN DRAWING THE NAMES. , (Scientific American.) Tho United States, with tho strictest of Jaws against lotteries or contests of any sort in which the element of luck plays a part in tho securing of a prize, has just completed the greatest lottery drawing over attempted. Tho prizes wore not monetary, but the call to the colours, or the possibility of not being called (according to individual viewpoint!) and the “game of chanco was specifically authorised in law. No lottery for monetary gain, m old world or Louisiana State lottery, was ever simpler in mechanism, or more bodged about with precautions to ensure absolute fairness. Ton thousand live hundred numbers wore drawn, which means that every registered man had one chance in 10,50L) of being called first, one chance in 10,499 of being called second, if not called first, one chanco in 10,498 of being called third, if not caljed earlier, etc. Inasmuch as the 4557 registration districts had different numbers of registrants, any ono single draft number might .skip registrants in small districts. Thus a district with 257 registrants only Vas not called upon by tho first number drawn (258), but the chance, as a chance, remained the same —ono in 10,499—that a given man from that district ho named second. There has boon some comment that inasmuch ns tho total number of numbers drawn exceeded the greatest registration in tho largest district, the drawing was not strictly proportioned hy chances to tho number of men registered. That this is an erroneous statement, a moment’s thought will show. Had there been 21,000 numbers, instead of 10,500, tho result would have been tho same, tho numbers above the highest number of registrants merely being discarded and having no effect on the lottery as such. Tho precautions taken to make the drawing absolutely a matter of chance word such as can give the most rabid anti-conscriptionist no points on which to hang an argument. The numbers, in rod on white paper, black on tho other side, were rolled, black side out, and inserted in gelatin capsules hko tho familiar five-gram quinine dose or household use. It was impossible upon tho closest scrutiny to road the number inside tho capsule. All tho capsules were alike. Rut while a searchlight might havo been turned on tho glass howl holding the 10,500 capsules, and tho most eager and interested man allowed to pick by sight, without in any way affecting his ability to determine ono number from another, only blindfolded men wore permitted to draw. Tho mass of capsules was stirred constantly with a spoon, and so thoroughly were they mixed that, throughout the drawing, two consecutive numbers wore in no case drawn one after the other. Different numbers drew different numbers of men. Thus, for instance, numbers one, two and three, etc., drew in * each case 4557 men for service—or for summons for examination—-since no registration district but had its numbers on©, two and three. But tho higher numbers drew loss land less men, as they wore nearer and nearer to the top figure. For instance, m tho capital of tho nation there were cloven registration districts. The smallest registration in any was 1642. Any number from ono to 1642 drew one man from each of tho eleven districts in Up to 1927, the next smallest number registered, any drawn number called ten men, up to 2090 called nine men, and so on up to 6704 and below 3721, which numbers called but ono man from Washington. On a larger scale, this happened all over the-country. In other jvords, each number represented a group of men, the members of which are scattered all over the country, these groups varying in size. Each drawn number summoned a group but, regardless of the size of tho group, one group was exactly as liable to bo called first, or last’ as any other groupAs the numbers were drawn by a blindfolded man, the capsule was broken, the number road aloud, checked, entered on lists and written on a blackboard. Had every man in the drawing been intent upon avoiding some ono number, it would still have been impossible. Tho blackboard with numbers listed iu the order in w liicn they were drawn, held 1000, and it was photograplied after each filling tflncanery, trickery-, influence, pull, graft they were all helpless before the utter simplicity and the absolute inexorability of this simplest of lotteries. In spite, however, of the utmost precautions in preparing tho capsules, there was ono error. The 10,004 th capsule drawn had no number in it. Later it was ascertained by checking that this missing number would havo called all men numbered 4664. At the time the blank was drawn, it was hastily decided to make tho 10,005 th drawing fill tho 10,004 th place, which made the total drawn from 10,499 instead of 10,500. The manifest, it theoretical, unfairness of this later became apparent, and 4664, when it came to light as the missing number, was promptly inserted in the 10,004 th place, where it belonged. Practically the matter is of no importance, since high called so late in the draft will in all human probability never bo summoned to tho colours. But tho principle is the same, and had tho blank number come out, for instance, on the 600th draw, and not been inserted m its proper place, but' eliminated entirely, all these men listed by that number would actually never really have been in the draw at all. No one knows how the error occurred, nor does it matter now, nor has it the slightest effect upon the absolute accuracy of tbo draft. That errors were so few is a matter of wonder, yet also one of congratulation, because, when matters of life and death hang upon gelatine capsules in a glass bowl, it is well that tho American spirit of absolute fairplay be fully satisfied. Another little difficulty presented itself in the case of 6689 and 6899. Upside down, either ono becomes tbo other. Bath wore recorded as the same number, though widely- apart in the drawing. It was ruled that the first number of these two recorded was correctly recorded, the second one being the true other of tho pair. Like the case of 4664 tho matter is more theoretical than practical. A complete system of checks and recheeks was resorted to before the final sheets wore made up to send out. The tally- sheets as recorded by- tbo tallymarkers and tho. blackboards were compared in order that there might be no errors. The final master sheets,,eleven to a set (ten of 1000 numbers, numbered iu order and one of 500, numbered m order); iaye been printed and

sent to each registration district, where the matter of calling the quota demanded in the first draft will be attended to. There were a few oddities in the draft worthy of mention. Number 2, tho 10,313 th number drawn, was drawn exactly at 2 o’clock in tho morning. Number 13 refused to live up to its usual reputation and was not drawn at thirteen minutes to or after any hour. Of course it was drawn on Friday, but so were all the other number^. Number 258, tho first number drawn, and to some men therefore tho on luckiest number of all, is curiously enough tho room number of that chamber in the municipal building in Now York, in which marriages are' performed, and in which hundreds of young men accused of being “marriage slackers” have recently taken unto themselves wives. The authorities of tho marriage license bureau aro pointing this out to would-bo slackers as an omen! As a result of tho drawing every registered man in the country is given a definite place in tho liability lor service list. Already 687,000 havo been ordered to the colours to fill to war strength tho regular army and national guard and to constitute tho first increment of tho national army. To secure that total, 1,374,000 men will be called for examination within a few weeks, estimating that two registrants must bo called for every soldier accepted. These 1,374,000 will bo taken from the iiead of the liability list, every local district furnishing a fixed quota. No further drawings will bo necessary as long as any eligible registrant is not under training. Only in the event that a now registration calling men between the ages of thirty-one and some higher ago is required, will another lottery like this one over be needed. Some little question has been raised as to why capsules instead of a wheel were used. The answer is simple. A wheel can got out of order. A draft of air can affect it. A charge, no matter how baseless, could bo made that it was tampered with, “fixed,” and therefore unfair. Tho most astute lawyer, tho most unscrupulous disturber, could not produce an argument worthy of a moment’s attention that anything but absolute chance governed the order in which tho numbers were picked from tho glass bowl, or even point out a possible way in which this draft could he considered in any way less than absolutely fair.